Oil Prices Surge Over 2% After US Strikes On Iran - Will You Pay More for Petrol in India? What You Should Watch

Oil prices rallied more than 2% on Monday, June 23, after the United States launched targeted airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear sites—Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan—heightening fears of a broader supply disruption in an already volatile Middle East.

Crude Surges to Five-Month Highs
Global benchmark Brent crude jumped $1.80, or 2.34%, to $78.81 per barrel, having earlier soared 5.7% to crack the $81 mark before paring gains. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.76, or 2.38%, to $75.60 per barrel.

The spike follows President Donald Trump’s unexpected weekend announcement that the US had joined Israeli forces in directly attacking Iranian nuclear facilities, a move analysts say could destabilise global oil supply, given that nearly a quarter of global oil moves through the Strait of Hormuz, adjacent to Iran.

Asian Markets Slip on Geopolitical Jitters
The ripple effect was immediate in Asian equity markets, which opened in the red on Monday.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.56%, while the Topix declined 0.49%.
South Korea’s Kospi shed 1.05%, and the Kosdaq lost 1.78%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dipped 0.58%, and China’s CSI 300 lost 0.4%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 declined 0.76%.

In India, the GIFT Nifty indicated a negative open, tracking regional weakness and geopolitical tensions.

Expert Insight: “Crude Oil Is Jittery”
Market expert Ajay Bagga commented on the situation, noting that while oil prices are rising sharply, the rest of the risk markets are seeing only “muted falls”.

“Crude oil is up more than 2% in early Asia trading as the world braces for Iranian retaliation to the US strike on Iran's nuclear facilities over the weekend,” said Bagga.

“With no increase in radioactivity in the areas around the bombed nuclear facilities, the US claims of ‘obliterating’ the Iranian nuclear program remains difficult to verify.”

He added that while headlines scream of plunging markets, “0.5% to 0.7% falls in markets are frankly par for the course.”

Bagga also noted that institutional investors have already shifted to a “risk-off” stance since Israel escalated its offensive 10 days ago, limiting additional market damage.
“The big risk remains Iranian asymmetric retaliation which will cause inordinate market volatility. Oil is jittery as its 24% supply route is under potential closure threat, though history and economic pragmatism both dictate that this will not happen,” he explained.

Market Volatility Ahead—but Not All Gloom
While the global market braces for potential Iranian counterstrikes, Gulf and Israeli stock markets ended higher on Sunday, signaling investor belief that removing Iranian nuclear threats may boost long-term regional stability.

“It is not WWIII, no one wants that,” said Bagga. “Investors should remind themselves that geopolitical conflicts historically represent good buying opportunities... Cash has good optionality in this situation.”

He advised Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) investors to stay calm amid the noise and deploy cash systematically if markets dip further.

Read More - Stocks To Watch On June 23: BEL, HAL, TCS & Bank of India

What Happens Next?
With Iranian proxies weakened, air defences degraded, and nuclear facilities reportedly hit, global analysts are now trying to forecast how, where, and when Iran will retaliate.
“Regime change will not be easy—especially via an air war with no boots on the ground and no liberated areas,” Bagga warned.

“If regime change remains the endgame, then we continue with these volatile markets. Otherwise, expect a détente soon, maybe within this week.”
Until clarity emerges, oil markets will remain highly reactive to developments. Crude traders are bracing for both sides of volatility, while investors eye longer-term buying opportunities should prices retreat.

The oil market is once again at the center of global financial stress. As military strikes reshape the political calculus in the Middle East, crude oil has emerged as the barometer of global risk. In the days ahead, all eyes will be on Iran’s next move—and the reaction of energy markets worldwide.