Gold Hits Record ₹1.5 Lakh: Expert Analysis on Whether to Buy Now or Wait for a Geopolitical Correction
With gold breaching the ₹1.5 lakh mark per 10 grams as of April 13, 2026, the market is split between war-time panic and a structural super-cycle. While the naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz has added a significant geopolitical premium, financial experts warn that new tax rules for SGBs and the threat of a diplomatic resolution could leave retail investors exposed at these record entry points.
- Republic Business
- 3 min read
Gold prices in India reached ₹1.5 lakh per 10 grams (24K) today, April 13, 2026, as the naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz continues to squeeze global supply chains and drive spot prices near $4,720 per ounce.
The rally has triggered a debate over whether the current price is a sustainable "structural floor" or a volatile "war premium" destined to correct.
While the blockade has injected immediate panic into the market, analysts suggest the reasons for the rally are more complex than that. "What we are seeing now is not purely a geopolitical spike," says Ishkaran Chhabra, Chief Investment Counsellor & Founding Partner at Centricity WealthTech. "The rally is being supported by gold regaining its appeal as a hedge amid the constant back-and-forth in conflict developments, policy uncertainties around the Trump administration, a weakening dollar, and continued central bank demand."
Karan Rijhsinghani, Head of Product & Advisory at Atom Privé Financial Services, adds that while diplomatic resolutions could trigger a sharp correction, the base has shifted. "Roughly 60–70% of the rally is structural, while 30–40% is linked to near-term geopolitical stress," Rijhsinghani noted. "Chasing it at peak geopolitical moments is not a strategy."
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SGB Taxation
For the retail investor, the record high price coincides with significant changes to the Sovereign Gold Bond (SGB) tax regime. "The recent taxation clarification in Budget 2026 has made this distinction particularly important," Chhabra explains. "While investors who buy directly from the RBI and hold till maturity continue to enjoy tax-free capital gains, secondary market buyers are taxed at 12.5% LTCG without indexation, which reduces post-tax returns, especially at elevated entry prices."
Abhishek Bhilwaria, an AMFI-registered MFD, warns that the current ₹1.5 lakh entry point is a high "insurance premium" that may not pay off. "For a retail investor, SGBs at ₹1.5 lakh are risky; although the 2.5% interest is attractive, the high entry cost and 2026 tax changes mean you could face capital losses that outweigh the interest gains if the geopolitical tension eases."
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Central Bank Hoarding vs. War Panic
Determining what portion of the current price is driven by fear versus long-term strategy remains the "billion-dollar question."
"Structural demand for gold is being set by central bank accumulation, which has remained persistent," says Chhabra. "The ceiling is being pushed higher by ongoing geopolitical tensions and war-related risk premiums while the trend is being sustained by broader macro uncertainty."
Ankur Daga, Co-Founder of Angara, agrees that the current pricing is a combination of factors. “We wouldn’t classify this as a purely geopolitical spike. Geopolitics has certainly accelerated the move, but the foundation for gold’s rally was already in place with rising global uncertainty.”
With gold potentially eyeing the ₹2 lakh mark if the blockade persists, experts advise against panic buying. "At current levels, the entry point is elevated, so expectations on short-term upside need to be calibrated," says Daga. "For retail investors, a phased approach tends to work better in this environment."
Rijhsinghani suggests a more dynamic approach. He says, "Our approach increasingly looks at a dynamic allocation between gold and silver, which allows investors to capture relative cycles within the metals space without constantly rebalancing or triggering tax inefficiencies."