India’s GDP To Grow 7% In FY26: Crisil Revises Growth Forecast Upward

Crisil, a global analytics company, has increased its GDP growth forecast for the Indian economy for the current fiscal year 2025-26 to 7.0 per cent, raising projections by 50 basis points.

This revision follows the country's robust economic performance in the first half of the year.

The analytics firm made the revision after India's economy expanded by 8 per cent in the first half, surpassing market expectations.

"We expect GDP to grow at 7 per cent in fiscal 2026, compared with 6.5 per cent in fiscal 2025," Crisil, a global, insights-driven analytics company, said in its report.

Strong Second Quarter Performance Drives Optimism

Growth in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 reached 8.2 per cent year-on-year, the highest in six quarters. This was up from 7.8 per cent in the prior quarter and supported by strong consumption and the GST rate rationalisation implemented in September 2025.

Nominal GDP growth, however, eased to 8.7 per cent from 8.8 per cent.

The Reserve Bank of India has also lifted its full-year GDP growth estimate to 7.3 per cent, raising it by 50 basis points.

Domestic Consumption to Lead Growth

Domestic demand is expected to lead the expansion, aided by moderate inflation, GST adjustments and tax relief measures.

Potential Risks from US Tariffs Highlighted

Crisil highlighted potential downside risks from US tariffs, which could affect exports and investment. Progress on a US-India trade agreement will be worth watching, the report added.

Inflation Outlook: CPI Expected to Soften Further

On inflation, Crisil projects CPI to ease to 2.5 per cent in fiscal 2026, down from 4.6 per cent in the previous year.

"Sharper-than-expected fall in food inflation, healthy agriculture growth, benign global crude prices and GST rate cut benefits are expected to keep food inflation in check this fiscal," Crisil noted.

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