Updated February 16th, 2024 at 15:45 IST

Rupee ends week with minimal movement, Dollar demand curbs gains

Closing at 83.0150 against the US Dollar, the Rupee managed marginal strengthening compared to its previous session's close at 83.0425.

Reported by: Business Desk
Rupee versus Dollar | Image:Unsplash
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Rupee vs Dollar: The Indian Rupee wrapped up the week with minimal movement, barely budging from its previous close as it traded within a narrow range on Friday. Despite supportive global cues, including a slip in the Dollar index, demand for the greenback from importers, particularly local oil companies, tempered the Rupee's gains, traders reported.

Closing at 83.0150 against the US Dollar, the Rupee managed a marginal strengthening compared to its previous session's close at 83.0425. The local currency remained relatively unchanged week-on-week.

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The Dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, stood at 104.3 after sliding 0.4 per cent on Thursday following disappointing US retail sales and industrial production figures. Most Asian currencies showed limited movement.

For the week, the Dollar index edged up by 0.2 per cent, marking its fifth consecutive week of gains.

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Meanwhile, forward premiums for USD/INR contracts saw a decline over the week, with the 1-year implied yield dropping by 3 basis points to 1.76 per cent. This decline was attributed to reduced expectations of aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Commenting on the trend, a foreign exchange salesperson at a private bank noted that forward premiums are likely to remain subdued in the near term due to the Fed's cautious approach towards interest rate adjustments, which is expected to keep US bond yields elevated.

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According to CME's FedWatch tool, the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in March has dropped below 10 per cent, while expectations for one in May have decreased to 38 per cent from 61 per cent the previous week.

Gaurang Somaiya, a foreign exchange research analyst at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, suggested that although further positive US economic data could strengthen the Dollar index, the Rupee is not anticipated to depreciate significantly. He projected the Rupee to continue trading within its current range of 82.80 to 83.20 in the upcoming week.

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Investors are now eagerly awaiting the release of US producer price index inflation data and speeches from Fed officials later in the day.

(With Reuters inputs)

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Published February 16th, 2024 at 15:45 IST