Share Market Prediction: Will BSE Sensex Breach The 1 Lakh Mark By June 2026?

Global financial service major Morgan Stanley expects Indian stock market indices BSE Sensex to hit the 89,000-mark June 2026, indicative of an 8 per cent marginal growth from its present level.

As per a Morgan Stanley report, the latest market correction from September 2024 levels creates a fresh opportunity to be part of this south Asian nation's growth tale. Meanwhile, the New York City-headquartered brokerage house also expects Sensex to breach 1 lakh mark in a bullish case.

In its latest outlook, Morgan Stanley has set Sensex base case target of 89,000 by June 2026, reflecting an 8 per cent upside from current levels. However, under its bull case scenario — assigning a 30 per cent probability — the investment banking firm projects that the Sensex could touch 1 lakh as early as June 2026.

“Our new Sensex June 2026 target of 89,000 (8 per cent upside) bakes in our new earnings estimates and is also rolled forward from the December 2025 target of 82,000,” said Ridham Desai and Nayant Parekh, Equity Strategists at Morgan Stanley.

This level is indicative that the BSE Sensex would trade at a trailing P/E multiple of 23.5x, ahead of the 25-year average of 21x. The premium over the historical average reflects greater confidence in the medium-term growth cycle in India, India’s lower beta, a higher terminal growth rate, and a predictable policy environment, the Morgan Stanley report said.

Sensex In Base Case Scenario

In the base case scenario, where Morgan Stanley sees a 50 per cent likelihood, the brokerage house expects BSE Sensex to reach 89,000 by June 2026.

This comes on the assumption of sustained improvements in India’s macroeconomic stability through fiscal consolidation, growth in private sector investment, and a positive real growth-real interest rate gap. A stable domestic growth outlook, absence of a US recession, and moderate oil prices are also factored into the forecast.

The base case also assumes progress on India-US trade deal that benefits both sides, a 50-basis point (bps) cut in short-term interest rates, and an overall positive liquidity environment. Under this scenario, Sensex earnings are expected to grow at a CAGR of 16.8 per cent through fisca year 28.

Sensex In Bullish Case Scenario

In the bull case, Morgan Stanley envisions a more favourable macro and policy environment, leading to Sensex rising upto 1,00,000 by June 2026.

This is basis crude oil prices remaining consistently below USD 65 per barrel, making room for monetary easing by India's central bank RBI, and a resolution of global trade tensions through reversals in tariff policies.

In such a positive scenario, earnings growth is projected to increase 19 per cent annually over FY25–28.

Sensex In Bearish Case Scenario

Morgan Stanley assigns a 20 per cent probability to its bear case, in which the Sensex drops to 70,000 by June 2026.

This scenario assumes a sharp rise in crude oil prices above USD 100 per barrel, leading to monetary tightening by the RBI to maintain macroeconomic stability. It also factors in a significant global growth slowdown, including a recession in the US. Under these conditions, earnings growth is expected to moderate to 15 per cent annually through FY28, with a noticeable deceleration in FY26. Equity valuations are also likely to compress in response to deteriorating macro fundamentals.