Nifty Prediction Next Week: Can Nifty Hold Above 24,600? Will Bank Nifty Break 56,000?

Nifty Prediction Next Week: Despite rising geopolitical tensions, such as the recent Pahalgam attack, and ongoing trade war concerns, the Nifty index has shown remarkable resilience.

"Nifty has displayed remarkable resilience wrapping up the April month with an impressive gain of 3.46 percent, forming a sizeable bullish candle with a long lower shadow on the monthly chart — a clear sign that buying interest emerged every time the index dipped," says Sudeep Shah, Deputy Vice President and Head of Technical & Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

This strong price action highlights the market’s underlying strength, even amidst external pressures.

The rally is particularly significant, given that it unfolded against the backdrop of global challenges, including the India-Pakistan strain, concerns around a trade war, and a sharp decline in the US dollar index.

Yet, the domestic markets stood firm, supported by steady buying and improving investor sentiment. "This strong price action highlights the market’s underlying strength even amid external pressures."

Technically, Nifty remains well above its short and long-term moving averages, maintaining its bullish bias. "Technically, Nifty continues to trade well above its key short and long-term moving averages, maintaining its bullish bias," Sudeep Shah points out.

Moreover, the daily RSI recently rebounded after finding support near the 60 mark, which is a positive sign.

The index is expected to consolidate within a broad range of 23,800-25,000 levels in the coming weeks.

Key support levels to watch are in the 24,050-24,150 range, while on the upside, the 24,550-24,600 zone will act as a key hurdle.

A sustained move above 24,600 could trigger a sharp rally towards 24,850 and 25,100.

Bank Nifty: Strong Performance and Consolidation Phase

Bank Nifty, on the other hand, has strongly outperformed broader markets. "The banking benchmark index, Bank Nifty, has delivered a standout performance, strongly outperforming the broader frontline indices," Shah states.

Notably, Bank Nifty scaled a fresh all-time high during April, ending the month with a nearly 7% gain. This performance solidifies its leadership role in the ongoing market rally.

At present, Bank Nifty is trading near its record-high levels, and all key moving averages and momentum indicators reflect strong bullish momentum.

However, following its sharp rally, the index has entered a phase of consolidation. Shah believes that "this pause is seen as a healthy sign, allowing the index to digest recent gains and build a base for the next leg of the move."

The index faces key resistance near the 55,900-56,000 range. A sustainable move above 56,000 could lead to a sharp rally towards 56,600, followed by 57,000. On the downside, the support zone is seen in the 54,500-54,400 range.

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Foreign Institutional Investors Action

The return of Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) to a buying mode is seen as a positive trigger for the Indian markets.

Shah emphasises, "The return of FIIs in buying mode is a positive trigger for Indian markets," as historically, FII inflows have been strongly correlated with market uptrends.

Even with ongoing geopolitical tensions, the comfort shown by FIIs signals confidence in India's domestic fundamentals — supported by stable macroeconomic indicators and better-than-expected corporate earnings.

"Sustained FII buying can provide an underlying support and help markets absorb external shocks," Shah adds. While global concerns may lead to short-term volatility, this inflow of liquidity could be a crucial factor in maintaining the market's resilience.

Sectors & Stocks in Focus

The current consolidation phase presents a good opportunity for long-term investors to accumulate quality large-cap and mid-cap stocks at attractive levels.

Sudeep Shah suggests, "We recommend traders to focus on banking and financials, defense, cement & tyre space, which we expect to show relative outperformance in the coming weeks."

For investors looking for opportunities, some of the large-cap stocks that could stand out are Divis Lab, Bharti Airtel, Grasim, HDFC Bank, HAL, and IOC.

Mid-cap stocks such as BEL, Abbott, Ceat, Navin Fluorine, and BDL may also witness relative outperformance.