Opening Bell: Dalal Street Bleeds Red—Sensex, Nifty Open Gap-Down Amid India-Pakistan Escalation

The Indian stock market began Friday’s session on a cautious and volatile note, with both benchmark indices trading sharply lower.

The Nifty 50 dipped below the 24,000 mark, trading at 24,087.50, down 186.30 points or 0.77%, while the Sensex fell by 495.69 points or 0.62% to 79,839.12.

Opening Bell: Markets Open Lower Amid India-Pakistan Tensions
Market breadth remained weak, with 2,014 shares declining, 327 advancing, and 71 remaining unchanged on the NSE. The sudden dip in investor confidence is being attributed to serious military tensions between India and Pakistan, which overshadowed positive cues from global markets.

Among the key gainers on the Nifty were Titan Company, L&T, Bharat Electronics, and Dr. Reddy's Laboratories, while Power Grid Corporation, Adani Ports, Adani Enterprises, Eicher Motors, and Asian Paints led the losers’ pack.

Yesterday’s Close: Geopolitical Fears Trigger Sell-Off
The markets had already shown signs of nervousness on Thursday. The Sensex closed lower by 412 points, or 0.51%, ending the session at 80,334.81. The Nifty too failed to sustain intraday gains, as heavy selling emerged in banking, FMCG, and auto stocks.

The second half of Thursday’s session saw heightened volatility as news broke of military action along the India-Pakistan border.

"On the weekly expiry day, the benchmark Nifty index remained confined within a narrow range during the first half of the session. However, a sharp sell-off emerged in the latter half after news broke about escalating tensions between India and Pakistan,” said Sudeep Shah, Deputy VP & Head of Technical & Derivatives Research at SBI Securities. “As a result, the index slipped below the 24,300 mark, ending the day with a loss of 0.58%.”

India Pakistan 
According to reports, explosions rocked the city of Jammu late Thursday, attributed to drone and missile strikes by Pakistan's military, allegedly targeting Indian defence sites in Jammu, Srinagar, Pathankot, and Amritsar. Indian air defence systems intercepted the attacks and also reportedly neutralised a Pakistani air defence system in Lahore.

"Considering the gap-down opening, the zone of 23,890-23,870 will act as immediate support for the index. If the index slips below the 23,870 level, then the next crucial support is placed at the 23,700 level," Shah noted.

Wall Street’s Gains Fail to Lift Indian Sentiment
Despite sharp gains in US markets overnight, Indian equities remained under pressure. On Thursday, all three major Wall Street indices closed higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6%, the S&P 500 gained 0.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite also ended in the green, albeit below its intraday high.

Investor optimism in the US was fueled by President Donald Trump’s announcement of a trade agreement framework with the UK.

The deal includes tariff reductions on British vehicles and the exemption of certain steel and aluminium imports. In return, the UK agreed to reduce its tariffs on American goods from 5.1% to 1.8%.

“Some will be much higher because they have massive trade surpluses,” Trump said, signaling that the 10% base tariff will remain for most British imports.
 

Read More 
Wall Street Cheers As Trump Agrees To US-UK Trade Deal

Asia-Pacific Markets Trade Higher on Fed’s Hold

Asian equities painted a relatively optimistic picture on Friday. Most Asia-Pacific markets moved higher after the US Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged, as expected.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.41% to close at 36,928.63, while the Topix ended flat at 2,698.72.
South Korea’s Kospi climbed 0.22% to 2,579.48, and the Kosdaq advanced 0.94% to 729.59.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 0.16% to 8,191.7.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.37%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 advanced 0.56% to 3,852.90.

Technical Levels: Key Support and Resistance Zones
Analysts have flagged critical technical levels that could influence short-term market movements. For Nifty 50, support lies between 23,890 and 23,870. A breakdown below this could drag the index towards 23,700, and if geopolitical tensions escalate further, even towards 23,200.

"In terms of the key levels, the 23,800 mark is a near-term minor support area. In case that holds, we are likely to see buying interest coming in at lower levels. Having said that, in case that level is breached, further pressure cannot be ruled out, and we could see Nifty slipping towards 23,500 first and then 23,200 is also a possibility," said Sugandha Sachdeva, Founder of SS WealthStreet.

On the upside, resistance is seen around 24,170–24,200 for the Nifty.

Shah said, for the Sensex, immediate support levels are placed between 79,400–79,300, with resistance at 79,900–80,000. Analysts are also watching options activity closely, with the 80500 and 81000 call strikes and the 80000 and 79500 put strikes emerging as key zones. The OI PCR stands at 0.76, indicating a short build-up.
 

High Volatility Ahead
With tensions across the India-Pakistan border unlikely to ease in the short term, market participants should brace for increased volatility. While global fundamentals remain supportive, geopolitical risk premium may continue to dominate sentiment in the coming sessions.