Shriram Housing Share Price Target: Emkay Sets Rs 750 for March 2026 After Q4FY25 Review

Emkay Global has reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating on Shriram Housing Finance Ltd. (SHFL), maintaining a March 2026 target price of Rs 750, even as the company posted a mixed performance for Q4FY25. The target price implies a price-to-book value multiple of 1.9x based on FY27 estimates, reflecting Emkay's continued confidence in SHFL’s long-term growth story.

"With a resilient business model, improving liquidity utilization, and strong internal cash generation, SHFL remains well-positioned to create shareholder value," Emkay said, backing its Rs 750 target price.

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Despite a softer quarter, marked by elevated credit costs and a temporary decline in net interest margins (NIMs), Emkay believes SHFL remains well-positioned to deliver robust growth and maintain healthy asset quality going forward.

Shriram Housing reported a net profit of ₹21.3 billion for the quarter, slightly missing Emkay’s forecast of ₹21.7 billion, as credit costs rose due to technical write-offs and stress in specific geographies.

However, management’s reaffirmation of 15% overall growth guidance — along with expectations of margin recovery as excess liquidity is deployed and borrowing costs ease — supports Emkay’s optimistic view. Management also guided to maintaining credit costs below 2%, with the potential for further improvement as rural cash flows strengthen.

Margins for the quarter fell 23 basis points sequentially to 8.25% due to temporary excess liquidity from large ECB raises but are expected to gradually normalize. Asset quality indicators improved, with GS3 and NS3 ratios easing to 4.55% and 2.64%, respectively, although provision coverage ratio (PCR) dipped to 43.3%.

Factoring in recent developments, Emkay has slightly lowered its FY26–27 estimates — trimming disbursement and Asset Under Management (AUM) growth forecasts by 2–4% and cutting earnings estimates by 4–5%. Even so, the brokerage sees SHFL maintaining strong return metrics, with expected return on assets (RoA) and return on equity (RoE) of ~3% and ~16%, respectively, over the next fiscal.

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