Stock Market Next Week: Will Nifty Slip Below 24,850 Or Bounce Back? Experts Decode Key Triggers

Indian stock markets are treading cautiously as they head into the coming week, weighed down by weak global cues, muted foreign investor activity, and the early stages of Q1 earnings season.

Despite outperforming pockets like FMCG and select PSUs, broader indices remain under pressure, with bearish technical signals and global uncertainties limiting upside potential.
Over the past week, the Nifty fell by 1.22%, while the Sensex shed 925 points amid profit-booking at higher levels. Sectorally, the FMCG index gained 2.20%, bucking the downtrend. However, the Defence and IT sectors witnessed steep corrections, declining 4.50% and 3.90%, respectively.

Global Divergence and Market Sentiment
“Currently, the Indian market is relatively underperforming its global peers, with several major global indices showing bullish momentum. This divergence highlights a phase of consolidation and cautious sentiment in domestic equities,” said Sudeep Shah, Deputy Vice President and Head of Technical & Derivatives Research (Equity) at SBI Securities.

According to Shah, two major triggers will dictate the market’s next move:
Q1 Earnings Season: Investors are closely monitoring corporate results for margin trends, demand visibility, and forward guidance, especially in a mixed macroeconomic environment.
Global Tariff Developments: Clarity on international tariff tensions could significantly sway risk sentiment and foreign capital flows.

“In the absence of these triggers, markets may remain range-bound, with stock-specific movement dominating,” Shah added. “A breakout from this consolidation will likely require strong earnings surprises or positive global trade cues.”

Nifty Technical Outlook: Bears Take the Upper Hand
The benchmark Nifty index broke below its 20-day EMA last week, a bearish technical signal. “On Friday, Nifty opened with a sharp gap down, slipped below its recent consolidation zone, and came under renewed selling pressure,” Shah noted.

Key technical indicators also point to emerging weakness:
RSI has given a bearish crossover and is heading south.
MACD histogram has flipped into negative territory.

Immediate support lies between 24,900–24,850, coinciding with the 50-day EMA. If this level breaks, the index could test 24,550. For any bullish reversal, Nifty must move above 25,300–25,350.

Bank Nifty at a Crossroads
The Bank Nifty index showed limited movement last week, fluctuating within a narrow 756-point range — its tightest weekly spread since August 2024. A small-bodied bearish candle with a long upper shadow formed on the weekly chart, indicating selling at higher levels.

“Bank Nifty is currently hovering near its 20-day EMA, reflecting indecision,” Shah said. “Momentum indicators like RSI are also flat, suggesting a lack of conviction among bulls or bears.”
Crucial support lies at 56,200–56,300, while resistance is seen at 57,100–57,200. A decisive move outside this zone will set the next trend.

IT Sector: Weakness Persists Despite TCS Earnings
The Nifty IT index remains under pressure post-TCS results. The index is trading below both its short- and long-term moving averages, with declining slopes — a negative technical structure.

“The RSI is hovering around 40 and weakening further. Unless a strong catalyst emerges, the sector is likely to continue its downtrend,” Shah said. Other major IT names like Infosys, Wipro, and HCLTech also remain weak and have not shown signs of bottoming out.

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FII Activity Muted Amid Global Concerns
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) are maintaining a wait-and-watch stance. “Barring some outflows on Friday, FII participation has remained subdued. This reflects caution amid rising tariff uncertainties and the lack of strong domestic triggers,” Shah observed.

Without clarity on trade dynamics or positive earnings surprises, FII inflows may remain tepid, keeping markets in a consolidation phase.

Sectoral View: Defence Weakens, PSUs & Tourism Shine
The Nifty India Defence Index has broken down from a 23-day consolidation range, slipping below its 20-day EMA. “This breakdown signals a shift in short-term trend dynamics,” Shah said, adding that the index’s RSI is nearing the 40 level — a bearish sign.

Other underperforming sectors include:
Nifty IT
Nifty Oil & Gas

On the positive side, Nifty India Tourism, CPSE, and PSE indices are showing relative strength. “These sectors have stronger technical setups and improving relative momentum, suggesting short-term outperformance,” Shah said.

Stock Picks for the Week
Among individual stocks, Shah highlights a few names that are showing technical strength and may be worth tracking:
EID Parry
Medanta
Prestige Estates
Ramco Cement
Asahi India Glass

These names, spread across healthcare, real estate, and manufacturing, are bucking the trend and showing bullish patterns amid broader market weakness.

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Adopt a Cautious, Stock-Specific Strategy
With the market caught between global uncertainties and Q1 earnings season, experts recommend a disciplined, stock-specific approach. “Until the Nifty and Bank Nifty decisively break their current ranges, caution is warranted,” Shah concluded.
 

Key levels to watch next week:
Nifty: Support at 24,850, resistance at 25,350
Bank Nifty: Support at 56,200, resistance at 57,200

As markets remain at an inflexion point, the coming week may bring clarity — or deepen the current consolidation phase. Either way, traders are advised to stay alert, hedge where necessary, and remain nimble.

Disclaimer

The views expressed in this article are purely informational and Republic Media Network does not vouch for, promote or endorse any opinions stated by any third party. Stock market and Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks and readers are advised to seek expert advice before investing in stocks, derivatives and Mutual Funds