Stock Market Next Week: Will US Attack On Iran Shockwaves Derail Nifty 50 Bull Run?

Indian equity indices ended the week on a robust note, with the Nifty closing above the psychological milestone of 25,100 and the Sensex surging over 1,000 points. However, geopolitical tremors from the Middle East could unsettle markets in the coming week. The United States’ airstrikes on Iran’s key nuclear sites have injected a fresh wave of uncertainty across global financial and energy markets.

Friday Wrap: Nifty Closes Strong Above 25,100
On June 20, Indian equity indices registered significant gains. The Sensex soared by 1,046.30 points (1.29%) to settle at 82,408.17, while the Nifty jumped 319.15 points (1.29%) to end at 25,112.40. This strong performance capped a week of positive momentum amid resilient domestic indicators and steady foreign inflows.

Sunday Shock: US Strikes Iran’s Nuclear Sites
In a dramatic turn of events early Sunday, the United States launched airstrikes on three major Iranian nuclear facilities—Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan—in response to rising tensions in the Iran-Israel conflict.

US President Donald Trump confirmed the strikes via social media and a televised address, stating: "We have completed our very successful attack on the three nuclear sites in Iran, including Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan. All planes are now safely on their way home."

Trump called the attack a “spectacular success” and warned of further strikes if Iran did not de-escalate. These facilities, crucial to Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, lie near vital energy corridors, prompting fears of retaliatory action and oil supply disruption, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping route.

Brent Crude Surges, Market Volatility Ahead
Oil prices have already reacted. Brent crude surged 18% since June 10, hitting a five-month high of $79.04 on Thursday, as per a report by Reuters. Analysts predict heightened volatility once trading resumes next week.

Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical & Derivative Research at SBI Securities, observed: “Crude oil remains elevated after last week’s breakout above its 200-day EMA. Sustained high prices continue to fuel concerns over inflation and potential supply chain disruptions.”

He added, “Brent closed with a gain of over 3%, marking its third consecutive weekly advance. Technically, a sustained move above $78 could trigger a rally towards $80.”
Support is seen at the $74–73.80 range, acting as a cushion against sharp pullbacks.

Risk-Off Sentiment Expected in Asia
Market expert Ajay Bagga warned of an imminent “risk-off” environment, stating: “By tonight we will get an idea via the US futures and Asian futures. Expect gap downs in Asian markets with a flight to safe havens.”

The S&P 500 remained largely flat last week despite initial jitters following Israel’s June 13 attack on Iran. The escalating geopolitical situation could finally tip the balance.

Indian Market Outlook: Strength Amid Global Storms?
Despite global concerns, Indian equities demonstrated strong resilience last week. According to Sugandha Sachdeva, Founder of SS WealthStreet, “The Nifty ended firmly in positive territory, gaining 1.59%. It found strong support at 24,500 despite the Middle East conflict, rising crude prices, and the US Fed’s hawkish tilt.”

She pointed out that multiple domestic positives cushioned the market:
WPI inflation cooled to 0.39% in May 2025, the lowest since March 2024
Trade deficit narrowed to $21.88 billion, reflecting external stability
FIIs turned net buyers, pumping in Rs 8,710 crore
RBI relaxed norms for infrastructure financing, boosting growth sentiment

Sachdeva added that technical indicators suggest further upside, stating: “The Nifty has successfully defended the key support at 24,500 and is poised for an upside breakout. Once it crosses the 25,200 resistance zone, the index may move toward 25,700 in the short term.”

Technical Setup: Bullish Continuation or Breakdown?
The index’s technical structure suggests more room for upside, if geopolitical tensions do not spiral further.

Sudeep Shah noted: “Over the past 28 sessions, Nifty moved within 24,462–25,222, with 16 gap-up or gap-down openings. Despite volatility, bulls took charge by Friday.”
He emphasized that Nifty’s close near the weekly high and above 25,000 was a strong bullish signal.

“The zone of 24,880–24,850 is immediate support. On the upside, breaching 25,250 sustainably could lead to levels of 25,500 to 25,700.”

Sugandha Sachdeva echoed this view, adding: “For six consecutive weeks, Nifty has been oscillating between 24,500 and 25,200. A breakout above this range will confirm a bullish impulse and could lead the index to around 25,700.”

Bank Nifty: Gearing Up for Further Gains?
Bank Nifty also showed strength, ending the week with a 1.22% gain.
Shah added, “It found support near its 34-day EMA and broke out of a three-day consolidation on Friday. The index is likely to test 56,800, followed by 57,500. On the downside, 55,500–55,600 will be key support.”

According to Sachdeva, “As long as the banking index maintains the 55,400 level, it is well-positioned to target 57,180 in the near term.”

What to Watch This Week: Fed & Macro Triggers
Beyond geopolitical risks, investors will closely track US macroeconomic data and Fed signals:
Fed Chair Powell’s testimony to Congress (Tuesday & Wednesday)
US existing home sales
Final Q1 GDP growth rate
Key PCE price index (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge)
 

Sachdeva noted: “The path ahead remains volatile due to the unpredictable nature of the Middle East conflict and upcoming Fed commentary. But technically, Nifty looks poised for a potential breakout beyond its consolidation range.”

Read More - ‘No Signs Of Contamination': Iran Says After US Strikes Nuclear Sites

India’s strong domestic setup may offer a buffer, but global uncertainty is rising. Traders must watch Brent prices, Nifty resistance levels, and Fed signals. If Nifty can decisively break above 25,250, the next destination could be 25,700—but any geopolitical escalation could quickly shift sentiment.