Stock Market Today: BSE Sensex, Nifty50 To Open Higher On Global Cues - Will The Rally Sustain?

 Indian stock markets are likely to open higher on Monday, tracking upbeat global cues and easing geopolitical concerns.

Trends on the Gift Nifty indicate a positive start, with the index trading around 25,765, up 29.50 points or 0.11% at 8:05 AM.

This optimism follows strong gains last week, with the BSE Sensex surging 2,491.70 points (3.05%) to close at 84,058 and the Nifty 50 adding 728.90 points (2.93%) to finish at 25,637.80. The Bank Nifty rose 1,550.50 points (2.77%) to 57,443.90, closing at a fresh all-time high.

Rs 12.26 Lakh Crore Added to Investor Wealth
Investor wealth surged by Rs 12.26 lakh crore as the Sensex posted gains for the fourth consecutive session, reclaiming the crucial 84,000 mark. The rally was fueled by easing crude oil prices, resolution signs in the Israel-Iran conflict, and bullish technical patterns.

Market expert Ajay Bagga noted that “Receding geopolitical clouds and tailwinds from trade deals, along with progress on Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill in the US Senate, are setting up a strong global risk-on rally.”

Nifty Breaks Out of Long-Term Consolidation
According to Sudeep Shah, Deputy Vice President and Head of Technical & Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, Nifty has broken out of a 31-session consolidation range.
“Like an audience holding its breath before the climax, the market was coiling, waiting for a trigger. That moment finally arrived this week,” Shah said.

Shah confirms that this move isn’t just symbolic—it’s structural. “The Nifty broke free from its range-bound structure, delivering a sharp upside move that ended the week above the 25,600 mark, its highest weekly close since September 2024.”

Nifty, Sensex Predictions: More Gains Ahead
Shah projects Nifty to continue its upward trajectory, potentially testing 25,800, followed by 26,100 in the short term. Support is expected in the 25,400–25,350 zone during any pullback.
For the Sensex, which typically mirrors Nifty’s movement, a 2–3% upside could push it toward 86,000 if bullish momentum holds.

Bagga echoed this sentiment, calling the current setup a “Goldilocks rally”, driven by benign inflation, stable crude oil prices, and supportive central banks globally.

Bank Nifty Hits Record High
Bank Nifty outperformed last week, posting fresh record highs over consecutive sessions.
“Bank Nifty continues to trade above all its crucial short-term and long-term moving averages,” Shah noted. “Momentum indicators such as RSI and MACD remain firmly in bullish territory.”

A bullish “cup” pattern breakout signals further strength, with 59,000 set as the near-term target and 56,800–56,700 acting as support.

Global Markets Rally Lifts Sentiment
US stock indices ended sharply higher on Friday. The S&P 500 closed at a record 6,173.07, topping its previous high of 6,147.43. The Nasdaq Composite also posted an all-time high, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose nearly 1%.
Asian markets were mostly positive on Monday.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 1.53% to hit a six-month high.
South Korea’s Kospi gained 0.87%, and the Kosdaq rose 0.67%.
China’s CSI 300 edged up 0.17%, despite manufacturing contraction for a third straight month.
Australia’s ASX 200 rose 0.2%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.51%.

Crude Prices, Monsoon, and Dollar Index Support Rally
Macro trends are also favouring bulls. Crude oil prices have stabilised around $67–68 per barrel, while the dollar index has cooled to a three-year low. Additionally, a normal monsoon forecast and signals of the RBI starting a rate-cut cycle are providing a strong base for the ongoing rally.

Global Drivers: Weak Dollar, Oil, US Data
Multiple factors are reinforcing this bullish trend globally:
US oil production hikes expected from OPEC+ are keeping crude prices in check.
The US dollar remains weak, reviving foreign flows into emerging markets like India.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model projects 2.9% GDP growth for the US in Q2 2025.
OIS curves now show a 90%+ probability of a US Fed rate cut in September, and the same odds for two cuts by December.

Bagga added, “A weak dollar, along with dovish Fed expectations and solid US GDP growth, are the perfect cocktail for EM flows.”

He also pointed out the political tailwinds, saying, “Recent US Supreme Court rulings have reduced the scope of lower courts to stall Trump policy action outcomes—this adds to market confidence around regulatory stability.”

Trade Deals and July 9 Deadline Loom
While July 9 is a critical deadline for potential US tariffs, Bagga believes markets are already pricing in a working framework.
“Markets expect rough and ready trade deals with over 12 major partners, including India, based on a universal 10% tariff and sectoral adjustments,” Bagga said.

In fact, Indian negotiators have extended their US stay to finalise a draft agreement. This development is expected to further buoy investor confidence in Indian equities today.

Foreign Investors Turn Aggressive Buyers
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have turned net buyers for the fourth straight month, reinforcing market strength.
“The FII long-short ratio in index futures has climbed to 38.43%, one of the highest in recent months,” Shah noted. “A rising long-short ratio indicates that FIIs are increasingly building long positions—a bullish sign.”

Sectors to Watch This Week
SBI Securities sees bullish momentum in multiple sectors:
Nifty Private Bank, Financial Services, Oil & Gas, and Infrastructure have broken out of sideways trends.
Nifty Auto shows strong momentum after breaching a key trendline.
Nifty India Tourism is close to a breakout above 9,300.
Healthcare, Pharma, and Metal indices are also improving.
Lower crude prices are expected to benefit aviation and oil marketing companies.

 

Key Stocks to Watch
Among stocks with bullish setups, Apollo Hospitals, Hindustan Petroleum, HDFC Life, Ultratech Cement, ICICI Prudential Life, Indigo, Ambuja Cement, LT Foods, and Glaxo are on SBI’s radar.
Investors Eye Earnings and Trade Progress
While earnings season will ultimately decide the medium-term direction, today's sentiment is firmly risk-on.
Bagga concluded, “Earnings will determine the continued rally in global and Indian markets, but for now, this is a classic Goldilocks moment. Expect a strong start.”

Read More - Stocks To Watch Today: Tata Steel, Zomato, Reliance Jio & More In Focus

With global markets gaining steam, FIIs turning net buyers, and key technical breakouts in place, the Indian stock market today looks set for a strong start. Backed by macro stability, sectoral strength, and investor optimism, the Sensex and Nifty may continue their rally in the coming weeks.