Stock Market Today: GIFT Nifty Signals Positive Start – Key Levels To Watch As Nifty Eyes 25,000

Indian equity markets are poised for a positive start today, with GIFT Nifty indicating a firm opening for benchmark indices. This comes after a strong close last week when the Sensex surged 769 points and the Nifty ended above the 24,850 mark.

Market participants will be closely tracking both domestic developments, such as a heavy Q4 earnings calendar, and global cues, including bond market volatility and the Fed Chair’s upcoming remarks.

Strong Finish Last Week Sets the Tone
The rally on Friday was broad-based. Top performers included PowerGrid, ITC, Bajaj Finserv, and Eicher Motors. Sectorally, Nifty FMCG led the gains with a 1.6% jump, followed by Nifty Private Bank and Nifty IT, each gaining 1%. Nifty Metal and PSU Bank rose 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively, while Nifty Pharma lagged, slipping 0.4%.

Despite the bullish end, market experts caution against complacency, citing multiple global and technical headwinds.

Global Cues and FII Outflows Could Temper Optimism
Sugandha Sachdeva, Founder of SS WealthStreet, noted that although Indian equities ended the week on a high, the markets were volatile throughout.

“Nifty slipped lower by around 0.67%. It could not sustain above the 25,000 level, mainly due to concerns about rising debt levels in the US,” she said.
The passage of a US House bill projecting a $3.8 trillion increase in debt over the next decade spooked investors, triggering a surge in US Treasury yields and sell-offs across global markets.

“Foreign investors turned net sellers last week, which further impacted our markets,” Sachdeva added.

Key global developments to watch this week include:
Fed Chair’s speech on Monday (interest rate guidance)
US-EU trade tensions
COVID-19 case uptick globally
US PCE inflation data

Sachdeva believes 24,400–24,500 is a key support zone. A break below could drag Nifty towards 24,000, but as long as the index stays above this level on a weekly close, buying interest is likely to return.

Technical Outlook: 20-day EMA as a Springboard
According to Sudeep Shah, Deputy VP and Head of Technical & Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, the 20-day EMA continues to act as a strong support level.
He sees resistance at 24,950–25,000, and believes a close above 25,000 could propel the index to 25,300 or even 25,500. On the downside, 24,500–24,550 remains a strong support zone.

Bank Nifty: Breakout on the Cards
Banking stocks could lead the next leg of the rally. Shah pointed out that Bank Nifty is consolidating but showing signs of a breakout.

“Heavyweights like HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Axis Bank are nearing breakout levels. Their synchronized movement adds conviction to a broader rally,’ said Shah.
 

Key levels for Bank Nifty:
Resistance: 55,800. A move above can take it to 56,500–57,200
Support: 54,700–54,800 zone

FIIs Turn Aggressive Sellers
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers, pulling out Rs 11,591 crore last week. The biggest chunk came on Tuesday, amounting to Rs 10,000 crore in a single day.
Bearish global factors contributing to this exodus include:
Rising bond yields in the US and Japan
US-EU trade tensions
Fresh concerns over Middle East conflict
Global uptick in COVID-19 cases
The FII long-short ratio in futures also dropped sharply to 33% from 42%, reflecting a more defensive stance.

Resilience in Nifty Despite Headwinds
Jatin Gedia, Technical Research Analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan, said that Nifty has shown resilience by bouncing from the 24,450–24,500 support zone.

“The hourly momentum indicator has triggered a positive crossover and prices are now sustaining above key hourly moving averages. This supports the bullish outlook,” he said.
He now sees a shift in support to 24,650–24,700, which strengthens the case for a move towards the 25,000–25,100 range.

Read More 
Earnings Today Alert: 200+ Companies Set To Report Q4 Results

Sector Watch: Metals, Defence, and Pharma in Focus
Nifty Metal index is trading above both its short- and long-term moving averages, signaling strength.
India Defence index hit a new high but shows RSI divergence—a potential red flag.
Nifty Pharma remains range-bound between 22,100 and 20,600.

Stocks to Watch Today
Ashok Leyland, NTPC, JK Cement, Ashoka Buildcon and Paras Defence are in focus today 
 

Earnings Today 
More than 200 companies are scheduled to announce Q4 earnings today, including big names like:
Aurobindo Pharma
General Insurance Corp.
Sumitomo Chemical
Blue Dart Express
Nazara Technologies
Vadilal Industries

The results could drive sector-specific and stock-specific action.

Global Markets: Mixed Bag
Wall Street ended in the red on Friday:
S&P 500: -0.67%
Nasdaq: -1%
Dow Jones: -0.61%

Asia-Pacific markets were mixed Monday, reacting to US tariff developments and regional dynamics. While Kospi and Kosdaq gained, CSI 300 and Hang Seng declined. Australia’s ASX 200 also edged down 0.14%.

Bottom Line
Indian markets are expected to open higher, but staying above 24,500 will be crucial to sustain the bullish momentum. A decisive move above 25,000 could unlock further upside. However, traders should remain cautious amid global uncertainties, FII selling, and a dense earnings calendar.

Key Levels to Watch Today:
Nifty Support: 24,500–24,650
Nifty Resistance: 25,000–25,300

Disclaimer

The views expressed in this article are purely informational and Republic Media Network does not vouch for, promote or endorse any opinions stated by any third party. Stock market and Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks and readers are advised to seek expert advice before investing in stocks, derivatives and Mutual Funds