Stock Market Today: How BSE Sensex, Nifty50 May React Amid Global Jitters, FII Selling, and Trump Tariff Tensions

 Indian stock markets may open lower on Friday amid weak global cues, persistent FII outflows, and looming US tariff risks. Experts predict a volatile session with key support levels being tested.
Indian equity indices extended losses for the second consecutive day on Thursday in a volatile session. The Nifty 50 closed at 25,405.30, down 48.10 points or 0.19%, while the Sensex declined 170.22 points or 0.20% to settle at 83,239.47.

As of 8:23 AM Friday, GIFT Nifty was trading at 25,511.50, down by 49 points or 0.19%, suggesting a negative start for domestic equities.

Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical & Derivative Research at SBI Securities, said: "On the weekly expiry day, the benchmark Nifty index touched an intraday high of 25,587 but failed to hold on to higher levels. Selling pressure emerged in the second half, dragging it to 25,405. The 13-day EMA zone of 25,300–25,280 will act as immediate support."

Technical Outlook: Key Levels to Watch
Shah added that if the index slips below 25,280, the next crucial support is at 25,150. On the upside, resistance is seen at 25,550–25,580, and a sustained move above this range could push the index to 25,700–25,850 in the short term.

Bank Nifty:  “Bank Nifty has slipped below its 10-day EMA. The RSI is under 60 and has given a bearish crossover, indicating limited upside,” Shah explained.

He placed support between 56,550–56,500, with a possible slide to 56,000 if the lower band is breached. Resistance remains between 57,100–57,200.
Sensex: “The Sensex has also declined for the second straight session. Going ahead, 83,600–83,700 is the immediate hurdle, and 82,900–82,800 will act as strong support,” said Shah.

Sectoral Trends: Where the Momentum Lies
Despite the overall market weakness, Shah remains positive on select sectors.
“Nifty Consumer Durable, Automobile, Healthcare, Pharma, CPSE, Infrastructure, Metal, Oil & Gas, and Capital Market indices are likely to continue their outperformance in the short term,” he said.

FIIs Sell, DIIs Buy: Institutional Flow Snapshot
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained net sellers on Thursday, offloading equities worth Rs 1,481.19 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) bought Rs 1,333.06 crore worth of shares.

 Global Markets: US Stocks Rally, but Tariff Concerns Loom
Wall Street ended Thursday’s session on a strong note ahead of the US Independence Day holiday, buoyed by a robust jobs report.
Dow Jones climbed 344.11 points (0.77%) to 44,828.53
S&P 500 gained 0.83% to 6,279.35
Nasdaq advanced 1.02% to end at 20,601.10

All three major indices closed at record highs.

Shah noted: “Stronger-than-expected employment data lifted investor confidence. The S&P 500 is poised to continue its rally towards 6,350, while 6,260–6,240 remains a crucial support range.”

Brent Crude & Dollar Index Movement
Brent Crude futures fell 0.47% to $68.65 per barrel. Shah stated that a break above $69.50 could lead to a sharp rally to $71, whereas support lies between $67–66.50.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) ended positively for the second day but remained below its crucial moving averages.

“The 13-day EMA of 97.30–97.50 will be key resistance; 96.50–96.30 is strong support,” said Shah.

Tariffs Take Centre Stage: July 9 Deadline Key
Ajay Bagga, market expert, flagged US tariff policy as the next big market mover.
“At 15%, US average tariffs are now at their highest since 1946. Tariff revenues surged to $24.2 billion in May, driven by President Trump’s 10% global tariffs,” Bagga said.
Bagga noted that US imports from China fell 43% YoY to $19.3 billion, the lowest in nearly two decades. However, overall US imports remained stable, raising questions about transshipments and the effectiveness of the "China+1" strategy.

“The impact of the frontloading of Chinese imports in January to March 2025 is still to fully roll through the US economy, so we will not have a clear picture at least till end August on the distortions in global trade flows and the incremental revenues collected by the US Treasury from the Trump 2.0 Tariffs,” Bagga added.

With the July 9 tariff deadline approaching, the market is on edge. Trump has hinted at 10% universal tariffs, 25–50% sectoral rates, and special levies on China and Vietnam.
“If reciprocal tariffs from April return, the average rate could surge even higher. Trump’s threats of 50% tariffs on the EU and 20% on Canada forced quick diplomatic concessions,” Bagga warned.

Fed Policy Outlook: Tariffs Cloud Rate Cut Hopes
Speaking at the Sintra Central Bankers’ Meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that elevated tariff levels are complicating the inflation picture.
Powell said he would have cut rates if the tariff hikes and the final tariff uncertainties had not muddled the inflation outlook picture for the Fed.

Domestic Liquidity Concerns: SEBI’s Jane Street Order Adds to Caution
Indian markets also face domestic headwinds. FPIs are reducing exposure, and a 105-page SEBI interim order barring Jane Street Group from accessing Indian securities markets could impact derivatives volumes and volatility.

Bagga commented: “We are in a consolidation phase. An oversupply of IPOs and promoter stake sales is draining liquidity from secondary markets. Trump’s tariff policies and Q1 earnings will be the key triggers.”
 

Asia-Pacific Markets Mixed
On Friday morning, Asian indices showed a mixed trend:
Japan’s Nikkei 225: +0.23%
Topix: +0.17%
South Korea’s Kospi: -1.09%
Kosdaq: -1.51%
Mainland China’s CSI 300: -0.11%
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: -1.43%
Australia’s ASX 200: +0.21%

Read More - SEBI Banned Jane Street After Rs 36,500 Cr Windfall in India - Details

Brace for a Volatile Session
With Nifty hovering near key support levels and FII outflows accelerating, Indian markets are bracing for another volatile session. Global cues remain critical, especially with US markets shut and tariff-related policy developments expected before July 9.