Stock Market Today: Key Levels To Watch For Nifty50, BSE Sensex Amid Q1 Earnings And Trade War Jitters

Benchmark indices are poised for a cautious start on Wednesday, July 16, amid mixed global cues, geopolitical tensions, and ongoing Q1 earnings in India. After a four-session losing streak, domestic equities rebounded on Tuesday, lifted by hopes of an interim trade deal between India and the US.

On Tuesday, the BSE Sensex climbed 317.45 points or 0.39% to end at 82,570.91, while the NSE Nifty 50 gained 113.50 points or 0.45%, closing at 25,195.80.

Sudeep Shah, Deputy Vice President and Head of Technical & Derivatives Research (Equity) at SBI Securities, noted the significance of Tuesday's rally.

“On Tuesday, the benchmark Nifty index broke its four-day losing streak, closing the session at the 25195.80 level with a gain of 0.45%. The market breadth showed improvement, and the sentiment turned positive across the board,” Shah said.

Broader markets continued to shine, with both Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 rising 0.95% each, outperforming the frontline indices for the second straight day.

Looking ahead, Shah identified crucial technical levels:
Immediate resistance: 25,230–25,260 
Upside potential: 25,400 if 25,260 is breached
Support zone: 25,050–25,030

“Any sustainable move above the 25260 level will lead to extension of pullback rally up to the 25400 level,” he added.

Bank Nifty Outlook: Pullback Continues
Bank Nifty remained relatively stronger, supported by renewed buying at lower levels.

“The index took support near an upward sloping trendline and staged a notable pullback,” Shah noted.
Key levels for Bank Nifty today:
Support: 56,700–56,600
Resistance: 57,200–57,300

On the Sensex front, Shah said the 82,800–82,900 zone is an immediate hurdle, with 82,100–82,200 acting as key support.

“The benchmark index formed a bullish candle with a minor upper shadow. The daily RSI has witnessed a pullback after testing the 46.31 level,” he explained.

Sector Watch: Pharma, Auto, FMCG in Spotlight
Shah expects select sectors to outperform in the near term. “Technically, Nifty Pharma, Healthcare, Automobile, Consumer Durable, FMCG and India Tourism are likely to outperform in the short term,” he predicted.

This could mean rotational interest shifting from IT and financials toward defensives and consumption-led sectors.

FII/DII Activity: Positive Inflows Continue
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) and Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were net buyers in the cash segment:
FIIs: Rs 120.47 crore
DIIs: Rs 1,555.03 crore

Continued domestic participation is a bullish sign amid global headwinds.

Global Cues: Trump’s Tariff Shock Rattles Wall Street
Overnight, US markets closed mixed as investors digested hotter-than-expected inflation data and escalating trade rhetoric from Donald Trump.
S&P 500: -0.40%
Dow Jones: -0.98% (over 400-point drop)
Nasdaq: +0.13% (record close, led by Nvidia)

“All three major indices opened with an upside gap but gave back ground over the course of the trading session,” said Shah.

Nvidia rose 4% after announcing potential resumption of H20 AI chip sales to China, lifting the Nasdaq.

June’s CPI showed a 0.3% monthly increase and a 2.7% annual rate, aligning with expectations but raising concerns over inflationary stickiness due to Trump’s trade moves.

Trump announced a 30% tariff on imports from Mexico and the EU starting August 1, stoking fears of a full-blown trade war 2.0.

Asian Markets: Mixed Trade, Indonesia in Focus
Asia-Pacific equities traded mixed on Wednesday, reacting to Trump’s claim of a preliminary trade agreement with Indonesia, which allegedly includes a 19% tariff on exports to the US—though Jakarta has yet to confirm the deal.

Key developments:
Asia chip stocks climbed as US lifted export curbs to China
Bitcoin declined as Trump-backed crypto regulation stalled
Bank Indonesia’s policy decision awaited later today

Commodities & Currencies: Brent Crude, Dollar Index Watch
Brent Crude fell 0.38%, forming a narrow candle pattern
Resistance: $71–$71.50 (200-day EMA)
Support: $67.50–$67.30

“The major trend remains sideways with RSI range-bound between 40–60,” Shah noted.

US Dollar Index (DXY) rose for the 4th straight session

Up 2.29% from recent lows
Resistance: 98.70–99 (50-day EMA)
Support: 98–97.80

The dollar's strength may continue to weigh on emerging markets and commodities in the short term.

What to Watch Today
Key Levels:
Nifty: Resistance 25,260 / Support 25,030
Sensex: Resistance 82,900 / Support 82,100
Bank Nifty: Resistance 57,300 / Support 56,600

Drivers:
Q1 earnings season in India
Geopolitical developments: Trump’s tariff policies
Domestic institutional flows
Sectoral rotation toward defensives and autos
Global inflation and monetary policy outlook

As markets digest geopolitical uncertainty and corporate earnings, short-term volatility could remain elevated. However, strong support zones and continued DII interest may help cushion the downside.

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