Stock Market Today: Nifty Eyes Breakout Despite Operation Sindoor — Experts Decode Likely Moves for NSE Nifty50 & BSE Sensex

The Indian stock market showed remarkable stability on Wednesday, brushing aside geopolitical concerns stemming from escalating tensions with Pakistan after Operation Sindoor. Despite a shaky start, benchmark indices ended the day in green, driven by strong institutional buying and global cues that were cautiously optimistic.

In the previous session, Sensex closed at 80,746.78, up 105.71 points or 0.13%, while the NSE Nifty50 rose by 34.80 points or 0.14% to end at 24,414.40.
The cautious optimism was underpinned by expectations of continued domestic strength, even as geopolitical headlines and international signals like the US Federal Reserve’s stance on inflation created undercurrents of volatility.

US Fed Keeps Rates Steady But Flags Inflation Risks
In a widely anticipated move, the US Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%–4.5% for the third consecutive time. However, the Fed's statement signaled heightened risks of inflation and unemployment, leading to global market jitters.

“The US Fed held rates steady while highlighting the increased uncertainty unleashed by US tariffs. Markets are still discounting three rate cuts in CY2025,” said market expert Ajay Bagga.
 

Expectations are also rising around the US-China trade negotiations scheduled in Switzerland later this week, while former US President Donald Trump is expected to announce a 'major trade deal' soon, fueling optimism in global tech stocks.

The reaction in the US markets was initially choppy. However, S&P 500 gained 0.43%, led by a 3% surge in Nvidia shares after reports emerged that the Trump administration may ease trade restrictions on semiconductor chips. This boosted sentiment in the tech sector, with the Nasdaq Composite up 0.27%, while the Dow Jones rose 0.7%.

Other global developments include:
Brazil's central bank hiked interest rates by 50 basis points, marking the sixth consecutive raise, citing persistent inflation concerns.
Bank of England is expected to cut rates by 25 bps today amid weak UK growth outlook.
The People’s Bank of China cut its seven-day reverse repo rate by 10 basis points, signaling fresh stimulus in a bid to support its economy.

“China's latest stimulus measures and policy easing in key economies could support global liquidity and eventually benefit Indian equities,” said Bagga.

‘On Wednesday, all major US indices faced high volatility but ended the day with gains. The sharp moves came as traders reacted to the Federal Reserve's policy update. While the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, it also warned about growing risks of higher unemployment and rising inflation,’ said Sudeep Shah, Deputy VP & Head of Technical & Derivatives Research, SBI Securities.

Nifty Outlook: Bullish Momentum Intact
Despite geopolitical pressures, Nifty continues to exhibit resilience. The index has now been consolidating in a tight band of 24,198 to 24,589 over the past six sessions, signaling indecision but also potential buildup for a breakout move.

“Nifty’s trend remains bullish as it continues to trade above short- and long-term moving averages. RSI remains stable and in bullish territory,” said Shah

Key resistance levels: 24,470–24,500
Potential upside: If Nifty breaks above 24,500, it may rally towards 24,650 and 24,800
Immediate support: 24,300–24,280
Crucial downside support: 24,160–24,140

He also added, “Talking about crucial levels, for Nifty, the zone of 24470-24500 will act as an immediate hurdle for the index. Any sustainable move above the level of 24500 will lead to a sharp upside rally upto the 24650, followed by the 24800 level in the short term. While, on the downside, the zone of 24300-24280 will act as immediate support for the index. If the index slips below the 24280 level, then the next crucial support is placed at the 24160-24140 level.”

Read More 
Trump Hints At ‘Major Trade Deal’ With ‘Highly Respected Country’

Bank Nifty: A Silent Comeback in Sight?
Bank Nifty has been underperforming relative to Nifty in recent sessions. However, on Wednesday, it bounced back from its 20-day EMA and showed signs of stability.
‘Going ahead, the zone of 54200-54100 will act as immediate support, while on the upside, the 55000-55100 zone is expected to act as a key hurdle,’ noted shah

Sensex Technical View: Breakout Awaited Above 81,000
After a weak opening, Sensex took support near 79,950 and closed above 80,700. Analysts now see a critical resistance zone between 81,000–81,100, while 80,400–80,500 is acting as support.

“We expect the broader markets to remain range-bound but lean bullish unless geopolitical tensions escalate further,” Shah added.

Volatility Rises as India VIX Moves Higher
The India VIX, a measure of market volatility, ended positive for the sixth straight session. It is trading above both its short- and long-term moving averages — a sign of rising nervousness in the market.
Resistance zone: 20–20.20
Support zone: 18–17.80

Sector Watch: Auto, Financials in Focus
Among sectors, Nifty Auto and Nifty Financial Services are expected to continue their outperformance in the near term, supported by strong technical and fundamental cues, according to shah.

FIIs & DIIs: Buying the Dips

“FIIs bought 3,105 index futures and 44,015 stock futures. On the options front, they sold 7,304 call contracts and 18,548 put contracts,” Shah added.
The long-short ratio for FIIs in index futures now stands at 50.14, indicating a neutral stance with slight bullish bias.

‘Indian markets showed resilience despite the heightened geopolitical risk due to Operation Sindoor. FPIs have stayed buyers for 15 days in a row now. With a resilient macro and returning FPIs , Indian markets would have been surging higher but for the continued geopolitical risk. As that tones down in the weeks to come, we expect an Indian market outperformance to take hold,’ added Bagga. 

 Cautious Optimism, All Eyes on Breakout
Despite the global and local uncertainties — from Operation Sindoor to Fed rate decisions — the Indian stock market continues to display a calm yet cautious bullish undertone. Analysts recommend watching for breakouts above key resistance zones in Nifty and Sensex for confirmation of a fresh rally.
However, investors are advised to remain alert to any fresh geopolitical developments, especially along the India-Pakistan border, which could trigger unexpected volatility.