Tata Motors Gears Up for Rs 800, Emkay Doubles Down on Buy Call Amid Growth Optimism

Emkay Global has reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating on Tata Motors (TTMT), maintaining its target price of Rs 800, following insights shared at the company’s Annual Investor Day. The brokerage firm remains upbeat about the automaker’s growth trajectory, despite near-term headwinds in the Passenger Vehicle (PV) segment.

“PV business performance, though, will be muted amid a weak industry demand environment and lukewarm response to recent launches. Our estimates are unchanged. We maintain BUY with unchanged SoTP based TP of Rs 800,” Emkay stated in its report.

According to Emkay Global, Tata Motors outlined a strategic roadmap aimed at expanding its footprint in both commercial vehicles (CVs) and PVs. For the CV business, the company is targeting a 40% market share by FY27, up from the current 38% in FY25.

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Emkay highlighted in its report that Tata Motors' focus on higher-tonnage vehicles, leaner cost structures, and improved after-sales service is likely to drive both volumes and profitability. Tata Motors is aiming for teen-level EBITDA margins in CVs by FY27 and expects to deliver resilient free cash flow generation of 7–9% of revenues.

In the PV segment, which also includes electric vehicles (EVs), Tata Motors is planning to launch seven new models and introduce 23 product facelifts or refreshes by FY30. While the short-term demand outlook remains subdued, the company aims to grow its PV market share from 13.2% in FY25 to 16% by FY27 and to 18–20% by FY30

Emkay noted that positive free cash flow from its ICE-PV operations and long-term EV plans continue to support the overall strategy.

“The E-PV business to sustain profitability (FCF negative in the medium term; the business is well funded). Total investment in PVs to be Rs330-350bn over FY26–30, with focus on product/technology, as capacity remains sufficient,” the report added.

However, the brokerage firm has not revised its earnings estimates, citing confidence in Tata Motors’ margin-led growth strategy. It expects the CV division to remain the key growth engine, while acknowledging a more cautious outlook for PVs in the near term.