Will Gold Touch Rs 1.5 Lakh Milestone This Dhanteras? Experts Decode the Golden Rally

India’s festive season is in full swing, and Dhanteras 2025, falling on October 18, marks the start of the five-day Diwali celebrations. As per tradition, millions across the country will offer prayers to Lord Kubera and Goddess Lakshmi, and buy gold or silver for prosperity.

But this year, the celebrations are happening under the shadow of soaring prices. Gold is trading near Rs 1.3 lakh per 10 grams and silver has crossed Rs 2 lakh per kg in some regions, yet jewellers report strong enthusiasm.

Despite the rally, the cultural compulsion to buy gold seems undeterred. In Delhi, gold prices remained stable on October 16, after three straight sessions of gains, offering buyers a small window of relief before Dhanteras.

Current Gold and Silver Prices (per 10 grams unless stated otherwise)

24K Gold: Rs 1,29,440

22K Gold: Rs 1,18,650

18K Gold: Rs 97,080

Silver: Rs 1,89,000 per kg

Gold Rally 2025: A Record-Breaking Year
The yellow metal’s rally this year has been historic. MCX gold futures for December delivery surged to Rs 1,28,395 per 10 grams, while the February 2026 contract hit Rs 1,29,380, gaining almost 1% in a single session.
 

Internationally, gold breached $4,250 per ounce, marking a 45% year-on-year surge, its strongest annual performance since 1979. The metal’s eight-week winning streak has captured both investor and retail interest, turning gold into one of 2025’s best-performing assets.

Why Gold Is Surging: A Perfect Storm of Triggers
The factors behind gold’s meteoric rise are multi-layered. Analysts point to renewed expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut, geopolitical instability, and central bank diversification away from the U.S. dollar.

“Price surged after U.S. President Donald Trump reignited trade tension on Friday by threatening to impose tariffs of up to 100% on Chinese imports and tighten export controls on critical technology,” said Tejas Shigrekar, Chief Technical Research Analyst at Angel.One

This, coupled with the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has already cost the U.S. economy nearly $7 billion per week, has spooked investors and driven them toward safe-haven asset, said Sugandha Sachdeva, Founder of SS WealthStreet.

Shigrekhar, explained: “Cultural demand ensures a baseline surge, while macroeconomic triggers amplify momentum. Investors should expect continued strength in gold demand through the festive season, with potential short-term corrections post-Diwali due to profit booking.”

He added that gold’s breakout above the ₹1.23 lakh resistance marks a major technical shift:
“This higher-high pattern suggests strong momentum supported by macroeconomic factors like central bank buying, currency depreciation, and geopolitical uncertainty. The breakout is accompanied by rising volumes and an RSI above 70, indicating sustained demand.”
Central Banks, Trade Wars, and the Return of ‘Safe Haven’ Gold

Gold’s rally isn’t just about festival demand — it’s a global macro story.
Central banks across emerging economies have been aggressively accumulating gold, moving away from dollar reserves amid geopolitical fragmentation. “The 67% year-to-date rally in gold marks its best annual performance since 1979, underscoring its role as a mirror of global fragility,” noted Sachdeva.

This wave of diversification has positioned gold as the “real global currency” — an asset that transcends politics, trade wars, and inflation.

Sachdeva added that central bank buying and monetary easing are key tailwinds: “Central banks have been diversifying their reserves away from the dollar. This anti-dollar sentiment, coupled with prolonged monetary easing, is strengthening gold’s role as the ultimate global hedge.”

ETF and SGB Inflows Hit Record Highs
The World Gold Council (WGC) data paints a bullish picture. Indian gold ETFs recorded inflows of $902 million in September, marking a 285% jump from August. Total holdings have surged to a record 77.3 tonnes, while cumulative inflows for 2025 stand at $2.18 billion, far surpassing previous years, she said.
Globally, physically backed gold ETFs posted their strongest quarter on record, with $26 billion of inflows.

According to Shigrekhar,“We are seeing fund managers, traders, and hedgers increasingly using gold ETFs and SIPs to average entry points. It’s not just retail fear-of-missing-out — it’s strategic allocation driven by macro caution.”

Technical View: Resistance Near ₹1.3 Lakh, Next Target ₹1.5 Lakh
From a charting perspective, the uptrend remains intact. Gold has support around ₹1,19,800 per 10 grams and resistance between ₹1,30,000–₹1,31,000, as per Sachdeva.

‘On the monthly chart, gold has broken above its previous resistance of 1.23 lakh, thishigher- high pattern suggests strong momentum supported by macroeconomic factors like central bank buying, currency depreciation, and geopolitical uncertainty. The breakout is accompanied by rising volumes and RSI above 70, indicating sustained demand,’ added Shigrekhar.
The RSI reading above 70 signals momentum, though analysts warn of near-term exhaustion. A correction post-Diwali would be healthy, they say, before the next wave begins in 2026, possibly driven by global rate cuts and inflation concerns.

Digital Gold Boom: Millennials Lead the Shift
While physical gold remains deeply rooted in India’s culture, a noticeable shift toward digital gold is transforming the landscape.
Hetal Vakil Valia, former National Chairperson of the IBJA Ladies’ Wing, sees this as a “generational change” in investment behavior.
“Gold has always held a special place in Indian households — not just as an investment, but as a symbol of wealth, tradition, and security. With global slowdowns, currency fluctuations, and rising inflation, Indian investors are again looking to gold.”

But how they buy it is changing. “In today’s world, the real question isn’t whether to invest in gold, but how — digital or physical. Personally, I see digital gold gaining serious traction, especially among younger investors and those in cities,” she said.

Valia explained that digital gold offers ease, safety, and accessibility: “You can buy it instantly through UPI or investment apps, starting with ₹10. It’s securely stored in insured vaults, so there’s no stress about lockers or purity. Plus, it’s easy to sell whenever you need liquidity.”

Yet, she’s quick to note that emotions still favor physical gold: “Physical gold still holds deep emotional and cultural value — especially for weddings, gifting, or long-term storage. There’s something powerful about holding real gold in your hands. For many, it’s more than just an asset — it’s identity.”

Advice for 2025?

“A balanced approach makes sense — digital gold for flexibility and physical gold for legacy. That’s how you hedge both volatility and tradition.”

Festive Season Demand: Cultural Compulsion Beats Cost
Despite gold’s 45% YoY jump, jewellers across India are reporting strong advance bookings and steady customer flow. Many buyers are switching to 22K or 18K ornaments, smaller pieces, or lightweight designs to stay within budget while maintaining the auspicious ritual.

Analysts say this reflects a deep-rooted belief in gold’s symbolic power. Even when prices soar, Indians buy — if not for investment, then for sentiment and tradition.

Will Gold Really Cross ₹1.5 Lakh This Dhanteras?
The big question: Can gold hit ₹1.5 lakh per 10 grams this Dhanteras?
According to experts, it’s not possible.

As Sachdeva says,’ This Rs 1.5 lakh is the potential target for next year dhanteras for this. Currently we can see it range around Rs 1.30-1.31 MCX. 

After Dhanteras: Will Prices Cool Off?
Post-Diwali, analysts foresee profit booking as traders unwind positions. If the US government shutdown is resolved, geopolitical tensions ease or the dollar index stays above 100, short-term corrections are likely, Sachdeva said.

However, experts maintain that the long-term trend remains upward. With central banks increasing holdings, monetary easing cycles expected in 2026, and persistent inflation risks, gold’s safe-haven appeal is unlikely to fade.

The Bottom Line: Gold Still Reigns Supreme
Whether or not it touches ₹1.5 lakh this Dhanteras, gold continues to glitter — as both a financial anchor and a cultural symbol.
In an era marked by trade disruptions, inflation fears, and de-dollarisation, gold remains the most trusted store of value. For Indian households, it represents far more than wealth — it embodies security, faith, and continuity.

As Valia concluded beautifully: “In India, gold isn’t just a commodity — it’s a connection to our roots, our families, and our future.”

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