India Leads Highest Growth Projections for FY25, All You Need to Know

India’s growth forecast: The robustness of the Indian economy is not hidden anymore now, with the International Monetary Fund dubbing India a “star performer” across the world has once again highlighted India’s growth robustness and potential. When the world's major economies either have slipped into a recession or are staring at the possibility of slipping into a recession, India’s growth projections by all major credit rating agencies and multilateral institutions have been revised upwards. From IMF to ADB, from UNCTAD to World Bank, all have revised India’s growth upwards. On the flip side, China’s growth forecast is projected to fall in the next two fiscal. 

International Monetary Fund’s Starry Growth

International Monetary Fund in its latest economic outlook has revised India’s growth projection to 6.8 per cent in FY25, against 6.5 per cent projected earlier. IMF has also dubbed India as the star performer across the world. As far as China’s growth is concerned, IMF pegged China’s growth at 4.6 per cent in 2024 and 4.1 per cent in 2025. 

UNCTAD global projections

Similarly, on the same day, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development projected India’s growth at 6.5 per cent in 2024 and global growth at 2.6 per cent. UNCTAD has projected China’s growth at 4.9 per cent in 2024. 

Barclays Big Projections

Barclays has raised its GDP growth forecast for India for 2023-24 by a massive 110 basis points to 7.8 per cent, while the bank's economists also revised upward their prediction for 2024-25 by 50 basis points to 7 percent.1

Asian Development Bank's optimistic view*

Similarly, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) raised India's GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal year to 7 per cent, citing robust growth driven by both public and private sector investment demand. While this growth estimate is lower than the previous fiscal year, the ADB remains bullish on India's economic prospects, attributing the growth momentum to strong investment activity.

World Bank's revised outlook

The World Bank recently revised its economic growth forecast for India, projecting a growth rate of 6.6 per cent for the fiscal year 2024-25 (FY25). This upward revision reflects an optimistic outlook on investment growth in India and anticipates a rebound from the recessionary pressures experienced by neighbouring countries like Pakistan and Sri Lanka.

Moody's Analytics projection

Moody's Analytics projected a slight uptick in India's GDP growth for the calendar year 2024, expecting it to reach 6.1 per cent. While this forecast indicates a modest increase compared to the previous year, it underscores the resilience of India's economy amidst global uncertainties.

CRISIL's long-term perspective

CRISIL, a leading credit rating agency, foresees India's economy expanding to $6.7 trillion by fiscal 2031, crossing the $5 trillion mark in the next seven fiscal years. This long-term perspective highlights the potential for sustained growth and economic development in India. Also, Crisil expects India’s growth at 7 per cent in this fiscal and for the next fiscal as well. 

Fitch Ratings' optimism

Fitch Ratings raised its GDP growth estimates for FY24 and FY25, citing growing domestic demand and improved business sentiment. With a revised estimate of 7.8 per cent for FY24 and 7 per cent for FY25, Fitch expects India's economic momentum to continue, supported by robust industrial and capital expenditure activities.

OECD's marginally raised forecast

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) marginally raised India's GDP growth forecast to 6.2 per cent for FY25, reflecting steady progress in macroeconomic policies and infrastructure investment. The outlook underscores India's resilience amid global economic challenges.

Morgan Stanley's revised projections

Global brokerage firm Morgan Stanley revised its GDP growth forecast for FY25 to 6.8 per cent, anticipating sustained growth momentum driven by rural-urban consumption and private-public capital expenditure. The firm also expects a favourable inflation trajectory and a shallow easing cycle in monetary policy, further supporting India's economic growth prospects.