India Leads Highest Growth Projections for FY25, Followed by China and Nigeria: IMF

IMF Economy outlook: The International Monetary Fund in its latest Economic Outlook revised the growth forecast for many nations and dubbed India as a “ star” across the world and is likely to contribute around 16 per cent to global GDP.  The IMF has projected the global economy at 3.2 per cent for this and even next fiscal, which is the lowest pace of expansion. 

“The pace of expansion is low by historical standards, owing to both near-term factors, such as still-high borrowing costs and withdrawal of fiscal support, and longer-term effects from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; weak growth in productivity; and increasing geoeconomic fragmentation,” the IMF opined in its report.  Historically, the lowest global growth is seen at 3.8 per cent, and the current lowest growth is reflecting restrictive monetary policies and withdrawal of fiscal support, as well as low underlying productivity growth. 

Flagbearer of growth

According to IMF's latest update, India is the fastest growing country yet again with 6.8 per cent growth in FY25, followed by China expected to grow at 4.6 per cent, Nigeria at 3.3 per cent, Russia expected to grow at 3.2 per cent, followed by the US which is expected to grow at 2.7 per cent. 

Growth Laggards

The IMF's latest outlook also showed that Germany will have the lowest growth rate at 0.2 per cent, the UK is likely to grow at 0l5 per cent, France grow at 0.7 per cent, Italy at 0.7 per cent, South Africa will grow at 0.9 per cent, Japan growth at 0.9 per cent. 

Trade Outlook

The IMF not only shed light on global growth but also projected a trade outlook for the nations. In its latest report, the IMF predicted the global trade outlook as well. According to the IMF,  the world trade growth is projected at 3.0 per cent in 2024 and 3.3 per cent in 2025, with revisions of a 0.3 percentage point decrease for 2024 and 2025 compared with January 2024 projections. 

Trade growth is expected to remain below its historical (2000–19) annual average growth rate of 4.9 per cent over the medium term, at 3.2 per cent in 2029.