India on track to become world's largest economy by century end: CEBR

India is poised to ascend as the world's largest economic superpower by the close of this century, according to a report released by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR). The report, titled 'World Economic League Table 2024,' presents a compelling narrative of India's economic trajectory, surpassing global giants like China and the United States.

Strategic growth projection

The CEBR forecasts a monumental shift in the global economic landscape, with India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) anticipated to be 90 per cent larger than China's and 30 per cent larger than the United States by the end of the century. The report outlines a steady growth trajectory, with India expected to sustain robust economic growth, averaging 6.5 per cent from 2024 to 2028.

Timeline to economic leadership

India's ascent as a global economic leader is strategically outlined in the report. By 2032, the country is projected to surpass economic stalwarts like Japan and Germany, securing its position as the world's third-largest economy. Beyond 2080, based on demographic estimates and projections, India is expected to overtake both China and the US, solidifying its status as the largest economic superpower.

Key drivers of growth

The report identifies several key drivers propelling India's economic rise. These include the country's large and youthful population, a growing middle class, a dynamic entrepreneurial sector, and increasing integration into the global economy. Despite the promising outlook, the CEBR emphasises the need for proactive measures to address challenges such as poverty reduction, inequality, human capital development, infrastructure enhancement, and environmental sustainability.

Economic resilience and challenges

India has exhibited substantial economic resilience, recording a robust GDP growth of 7.2 per cent in 2022-23. However, the report anticipates a slight moderation in growth to 6.4 per cent for 2023-24, citing global demand moderation and the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) proactive tightening of monetary policy to curb inflationary pressures.

Global economic context

While celebrating India's economic ascent, the report acknowledges global economic uncertainties, including the war in Ukraine and rising international tensions. The study emphasises the need for collaborative efforts from the government, private sector, civil society, and international community to address challenges and ensure sustainable growth.

Upcoming general elections and political impact

The report also highlights the significance of the upcoming general elections in 2024 for India. The outcomes are expected to shape the country's political trajectory for the next five years, influencing domestic and foreign policy, as well as relations with neighboring countries and major global powers.