India's Growth Story: Diverse projections point to positive outlook

India's Growth Story: As the global economy continues its recovery from the pandemic-induced slowdown, India's economic growth prospects have garnered significant attention from various international institutions and financial experts. With forecasts ranging from optimistic to cautiously positive, the consensus remains that India's growth trajectory is poised for an upward trend in the coming years.

World Bank's revised outlook

The World Bank recently revised its economic growth forecast for India, projecting a growth rate of 6.6 per cent for the fiscal year 2024-25 (FY25). This upward revision reflects an optimistic outlook on investment growth in India and anticipates a rebound from the recessionary pressures experienced by neighboring countries like Pakistan and Sri Lanka.

Asian Development Bank's optimistic view

Similarly, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) raised India's GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal year to 7 per cent, citing robust growth driven by both public and private sector investment demand. While this growth estimate is lower than the previous fiscal year, the ADB remains bullish on India's economic prospects, attributing the growth momentum to strong investment activity.

Moody's Analytics projection

Moody's Analytics projected a slight uptick in India's GDP growth for the calendar year 2024, expecting it to reach 6.1 per cent. While this forecast indicates a modest increase compared to the previous year, it underscores the resilience of India's economy amidst global uncertainties.

IMF's upgraded outlook

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also upgraded India's growth outlook, expecting GDP growth to reach 6.7 per cent in FY24. Moreover, the IMF forecasts steady growth rates of 6.5 per cent for both FY25 and FY26, reflecting confidence in India's economic resilience and domestic demand.

CRISIL's long-term perspective

CRISIL, a leading credit rating agency, foresees India's economy expanding to $6.7 trillion by fiscal 2031, crossing the $5 trillion mark in the next seven fiscal years. This long-term perspective highlights the potential for sustained growth and economic development in India.

Fitch Ratings' optimism

Fitch Ratings raised its GDP growth estimates for FY24 and FY25, citing growing domestic demand and improved business sentiment. With a revised estimate of 7.8 per cent for FY24 and 7 per cent for FY25, Fitch expects India's economic momentum to continue, supported by robust industrial and capital expenditure activities.

OECD's marginally raised forecast

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) marginally raised India's GDP growth forecast to 6.2 per cent for FY25, reflecting steady progress in macroeconomic policies and infrastructure investment. The outlook underscores India's resilience amid global economic challenges.

Morgan Stanley's revised projections

Lastly, global brokerage firm Morgan Stanley revised its GDP growth forecast for FY25 to 6.8 per cent, anticipating sustained growth momentum driven by rural-urban consumption and private-public capital expenditure. The firm also expects a favorable inflation trajectory and a shallow easing cycle in monetary policy, further supporting India's economic growth prospects.