UNCTAD forecasts Indian economic growth at 6.5% in 2024, global economic growth at 2.6%

India growth projection: The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has released a report painting a mixed picture of the global economy in 2024. Overall growth is projected to be a sluggish 2.6 per cent, barely above the threshold often associated with recession.

While the global outlook appears gloomy, India stands out as a bright spot. The report forecasts the Indian economy to expand by a healthy 6.5 per cent in 2024, driven by strong public investment and a thriving service sector.

This positive outlook for India contrasts sharply with the struggles faced by many developed economies. The report highlights weak economic activity and industrial slowdowns in European countries like Germany and Italy. Fiscal constraints are further dampening their growth prospects.

The Americas are also expected to see a slowdown. Argentina grapples with severe inflation, while Brazil's economic momentum is hampered by external pressures and its dependence on commodities. North America shows some resilience, but challenges remain.

Africa's growth is projected to inch up slightly to 3.0 per cent in 2024, compared to 2.9 per cent in 2023. However, armed conflicts and climate change pose significant challenges for several African countries. Additionally, the continent's powerhouse economies – Nigeria, Egypt, and South Africa – are underperforming, impacting overall growth prospects.

Growth in the Oceania region, particularly Australia, is expected to remain subdued, with the low-growth period extending into 2024.

The report also sheds light on global trade, which contracted by about 1 per cent in real terms in 2023. This decline is attributed to trade tensions among major economies and weak global demand. Disruptions in key shipping routes, like the drought affecting the Panama Canal and attacks in the Red Sea, further strained merchandise trade and pushed shipping costs significantly higher in the last six months.

(With agency inputs.)