West Bengal Lok Sabha Elections

Republic Double Exit Poll For West Bengal: Major Inroads Projected For BJP In Mamata Banerjee's Bastion, Trinamool Likely To Come Down From 2014 High In 2019 Lok Sabha Polls

Written By Daamini Sharma | Mumbai | Published:

Thirty-eight days after it began, the polling in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections has concluded on Sunday, bringing to an end the largest festival of democracy anywhere in the world. Spread across seven phases throughout the 29 states and 7 Union Territories, the 2019 elections will decide the fate of the 542 Lok Sabha seats (excluding the Vellore constituency where elections were countermanded over alleged use of cash by DMK). Now, the final chapter in the polls remains as the country awaits to know the composition of the 17th Lok Sabha which and consequently, the next government of India. Ahead of the critical vote-counting on May 23, however, amid the slog overs of the general elections, Republic Media Network has brought to its viewers a mega double exit poll which presents a projection on what the final outcome may be.

India's biggest double exit poll, conducted on-ground at polling booths across the country by the nation's biggest pollsters CVoter and Jan Ki Baat, presents a statistically significant projection for the country, including granularity to the level of individual states and union territories.

The projection for West Bengal:

The newsmaker of the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, violence including crude bombs, lathicharges and repeated political clashes and claims of attacks from candidates became the talking point in West Bengal as polling was held in all seven phases in the politically important state. The BJP has left no stone unturned in attempting to make inroads into Mamata Banerjee's bastion while the Trinamool has responded by not ceding an inch. However, it appears that the BJP's efforts have paid off as the party is projected to win a significant number of seats in the state:

C-Voter:

Now, as per the predicted figure, Mamata Banerjee will continue to hold the Trinamool-ruled state by crushing Congress and CPM out of the race by winning 29 seats. However, BJP is projected to win 11 seats in the state to give Trinamool a hard time.  

Here's the vote share projection by CVoter:

NDA- 32.3%

UPA- 11.4% 

CPM-14.1%

Trinamool-39.2%

Jan Ki Baat projection:

According to Jan Ki Baat, however, the BJP is projected to be in line for an even more significant result by winning between 18-26 seats while the Trinamool is projected to win between 13-21 seats - one of the headlines of the election if it does come to pass.

Here's the seat share projection:

  • BJP: 18- 26 seats
  • INC: 3 seats
  • Trinamool: 21- 13 seats
  • CPM: 0 seats

Tough battles in West Bengal: 

Violence and the Modi vs Mamata battle - the latter, a crucial factor in determining what BJP’s final tally will be - have, of course, made Bengal an election hotspot. The second largest city and Urban agglomeration in West Bengal after Kolkata, the industrial belt of Asansol is slated to witness a star-powered fight this election. Actor Moon Moon Sen had pulled off a major upset in her poll debut by defeating nine-time MP Basudeb Acharia of the CPI(M) in West Bengal’s Bankura Lok Sabha constituency. In her Poll debut Trinamool Congress nominee Sen triumphed by 97,511 votes over Acharia, who has been winning from the seat without a break since 1980. Sen, daughter of Bengali screen legend Suchitra Sen, received 481,911 votes. Now, the actor-turned-politician has been fielded against BJP's big gun and Union Minister Babul Supriyo from Asansol constituency. 

Meanwhile, Sitting MP Abhishek Banerjee, who is the nephew of Trinamoool chief Mamata Banerjee and considered the number two in the party, is seeking re-election from the Diamond Harbour seat, where he is pitted against BJP's Nilanjan Roy. The CPI(M) has nominated Fuad Halim and the Congress Soumya Aich Roy for the seat.

Read: Republic Double Exit Poll For Uttar Pradesh: Jan Ki Baat Projects BJP Win With Over Half The State's Seats, CVoter Projects SP-BSP Mahagathbandhan Fightback, Congress To Lose

Here's how West Bengal voted in the last three elections in the state:

Read: Republic Double Exit Poll For Maharashtra: BJP-ShivSena Combination Projected To Rout Congress-NCP Alliance As Per Both Jan Ki Baat And CVoter

The election story so far:

The 2019 elections saw high-octane electric campaigning from both sides as the BJP went hammer and tongs, expressing confidence at each turn that it would not only repeat but also better its tally of 282 votes from five years earlier, whereas the Congress and other Opposition parties, especially West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee also campaigned heavily though without being able to make any convincing show of unity. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi, seeking a second term in the Parliament, addressed a total of 144 rallies and roadshows this election season, Congress president Rahul Gandhi addressed 125 rallies in the 2019 polls.

While Prime Minister Narendra Modi, seeking a second term in the office, addressed a total of 144 rallies and roadshows this election season, Congress president Rahul Gandhi addressed 125 rallies in the 2019 polls with the elections also marking the entry of his sister Priyanka Gandhi Vadra as an official member of the Congress.  

There were controversies galore over the course of the polls, ranging from poll violence being witnessed in each of the 7 phases of voting in Bengal, to some shocking statements from leaders across parties, with the likes of Azam Khan, Yogi Adityanath, Maneka Gandhi and others being struck down on by the Election Commission, and others, like Sam Pitroda, Sadhvi Pragya and Kamal Haasan triggering mass outrage. 

A number of Republic Media Network newsbreaks especially set the agenda for the polls, including the first interview of the Prime Minister's election campaign to Republic's Editor-in-Chief Arnab Goswami and his final campaign interview to Executive Editor Abhishek Kapoor. Alongside these were the sensational #MPsOnSale sting on sitting MPs who showed themselves willing to compromise the interests of those whom they claim to represent, the Operation Karz Maafi sting that exposed the falsehood in the Congress' farm loan-waiver promise, and numerous others.

The vote counting for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls will be held on May 23. Join Arnab on Republic Media Network for non-stop coverage of the sensational conclusion to the general elections. 

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