Karnataka elections 2023: Republic-PMARQ exit poll predicts party-wise seat & vote shares

The Karnataka elections 2023 ended at 6 pm on May 10 and the Republic-PMARQ exit poll has predicted that Congress might emerge as the party with the most number of constituency wins. The BJP is likely to come in second while HD Kumaraswamy-led Janata Dal (Secular) with the potential to play kingmaker. Here is the predicted party-wise seat share according to the Republic-PMARQ Karnataka exit poll.

Party-wise seat share

Party-wise vote share

Methodology of the exit poll: 

The exit poll was conducted across all districts of Karnataka. The sample size of the survey was 21,432. The methodology for the exit poll is a random stratified sampling using predominantly three techniques -- Field surveys, CATI, and IDIs with key people in districts and assembly constituencies. A probabilistic model was then used to determine the number of seats a party is going to win from the estimated vote share. 

The survey results have been adjusted in proportion to reflect the state and district population across age-groups, religion, gender and caste. The questions in the survey were designed to reflect the current scenario electorally and politically and to gauge the critical factors that might play a role in the voting preference of a voter. There is error margin of 3%.