Karnataka exit poll predicts neck and neck BJP-Congress battle: Here are highlights

Karnataka exit poll figures for the elections held on May 10 show that the BJP and the Congress could be involved in a tight battle in the state, while the Janata Dal (Secular) is likely to play the role of a kingmaker as the third-largest party. The exit poll predicted a hung assembly in the state, with no political party appearing to be getting a clear majority in the 224-seats Karnataka Assembly.

According to Republic P-MARQ exit poll, BJP's seat share is predicted to be between 85 to 100, and Congress it projected to win 94 to 108 seats. JD(S) is predicted to win 24 to 32 seats, while 2 to 6 seats are predicted to be won by other parties/candidates. 

Congress likely to improve tally

As per exit poll prediction, only Congress party is set to improve its tally in the state compared to its performance in the previous assembly polls, while, the BJP and the JD(S) are likely to suffer loss in the final results of assembly polls. The exit poll shows that the vote share percentage this year has not changed too much as compared to the 2018 elections.

As per the data, the BJP is likely to get 36% vote share, the Congress is likely to get 40% vote share, 17% vote share is predicted for the JD(S), while others are likely to get 7% vote share. 

After the Karnataka Assembly elections in 2018, the BJP had won 104 seats and managed to secure 36.35% vote share, the Congress had won 80 seats and managed to get 38.14% vote share, while the JD(S) had won 37 seats with 18.3% vote share. 

As per political experts, HD Kumaraswamy is going to be the kingmaker in Karnataka and the next government in the state will be formed only with his support. 

Data of 'Poll of Polls'

According to data, the exit poll by P-MARQ has predicted 85-100 seats for the BJP, 94-108 seats for the Congress, 24-32 seats for the JD(S), while 2-6 seats have been given to other political parties in Karnataka. Polstrat has predicted 88-98 seats for the BJP, 99-109 seats for the Congress, 21-26 seats for the JD(S) and 0-4 seats for others.

As per exit poll of Matrize, the BJP is likely to win 79-94 seats, the Congress likely to win 103-118 seats, the JD(S) is likely to win 25-33 seats, whereas other political parties are predicted to get 2-5 seats. Digvijay-C exit poll shows that BJP will get 83-95 seats, the Congress will get 100-112 seats, the JD(S) will get 21-29 seats and 2-6 seats will go to other political parties.

On the other hand, News-First has given 94-117 seats to the BJP, 91-106 seats to the Congress, 14-24 seats to the JD(S), while no seat has been given to other parties. 

The exit polls have projected the Congress as the largest party in the state assembly with 104 seats, which is 24 more than total seats won by the party in 2018 elections. This is followed by the BJP, which is expected to come out as the second largest party with 94 seats, 10 less than the seats won in 2018. The JD(S) has been projected as the third-largest party with 25 seats, 12 less than the seats won in 2018. Apart from this, 3 of the seats are likely to see MLAs from other smaller parties.

The votes will be counted and results will be announced on May 13.

Region-wise prediction

Karnataka has 224 constituencies spanning into six regions, which includes Bombay Karnataka, Central Karnataka, Hyderabad Karnataka, Old Mysuru, Coastal Karnataka and Bengaluru region. The exit poll of P-MARQ predicts that the Congress is going to emerge as winner in the Central Karnataka, Hyderabad Karnataka along with Bengaluru region, while the BJP is likely to win the Coastal Karnataka with majority of seats in the region and emerge as the biggest party in Bombay Karnataka. The JD(S) is predicted to win Old Mysuru region.