New Delhi: The BJP-led NDA is expected to win 25-27 of the 28 seats in Karnataka in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, Republic Kannada-P-Marq Opinion Poll predicted. The party had won the same number of seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha election and in 2014, it had bagged 17 seats. Karnataka's 28 Lok Sabha seats are crucial for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's aim of securing over 400 seats by the NDA coalition. The BJP plans to vie for 25 of these seats, leaving the remaining three for its coalition partner, JD(S), which will focus on constituencies in the Old Mysore region. 

Vote Share

According to the survey, the NDA is likely to get an absolute majority with a 56 per cent vote share while the Congress which won 1 seat in 2019 is expected to secure 38 per cent vote share.

Caste-wise Vote Percentage

Caste has traditionally played a significant role in shaping electoral dynamics in India, and the upcoming 2024 elections in Karnataka are expected to be no exception.

The BJP, the Janata Dal (Secular) and the Congress have their corresponding support bases in different communities. The BJP has enjoyed massive (and consistent) support from Lingayats, a dominant community in the state, and in 2024 as well nearly two-thirds or 67 per cent of Lingayats are expected to vote for the BJP+. For the unversed, Lingayats are dispersed across Karnataka, with significant concentrations in northern Karnataka, particularly in the Mumbai-Karnataka region.  

Besides, Vokkaligas and other OBC groups are likely to extend their support to the BJP in the upcoming elections. However, JD(S) remains highly popular among Vokkaligas, particularly due to its stronghold in the Old Mysuru region. In the past polls, JD(S) has garnered the majority of Vokkaliga votes in the area (Old Mysuru), owing to its strong base and leadership appeal among the community.

On the other hand, the Congress, this time will find support among Muslims, Kurubas and Scheduled Castes.

Gender-Wise Vote Percentage 

According to the survey findings, 57% of male respondents and 53% of female respondents have expressed their preference for the BJP+ alliance, indicating it as the primary choice they can rely on. On the other hand, 37% of male respondents and 41% of female respondents have indicated their preference for the current Congress government in Karnataka.  
 

Geography Wise Vote Preference

The survey results revealed that 55% of individuals in rural households and 57% of those in urban households have expressed their trust in the BJP+ alliance. Conversely, support for the Congress seems to be dwindling, with 39% of people in rural areas and 37% in urban areas indicating their backing for the party.  

BJP's Karnataka Strategy: Out With Sitting MPs, In With Old Horses   

Earlier this week, the BJP had announced candidates for 20 out of 28 Lok Sabha seats in Karnataka, which includes Mysuru royal scion Yaduveer Krishnadatta Chamaraja Wadiyar from Mysuru and former Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai from Haveri. The party has replaced nine sitting MPs including former Chief Minister D V Sadanada Gowda from Bangalore North, Prathap Simha from Mysuru and former state BJP chief Nalin Kumar Kateel from Dakshina Kannada. Union Minister of State Shobha Karandlaje, who was facing some resistance for re-nomination within the party from Udupi-Chikmagalur, has been shifted to Bangalore North, which is currently represented by Sadananda Gowda.   

Kota Srinivas Poojary, who is currently the Leader of the Opposition in the Legislative Council, will now contest from Udupi-Chikmagalur. In Bellary, the party has fielded S T community leader and former Minister B Sriramulu. Noted cardiac surgeon and former Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda's son-in-law Dr C N Manjunath has been fielded from Bangalore Rural Lok Sabha segment, where he will face sitting Congress MP and Deputy Chief Minister D K Shivakumar's brother D K Suresh.

Those who have retained the candidature include Annasaheb Jolle (Chikkodi), P C Gaddigoudar (Bagalkot), Ramesh Jigajinagi (Bijapur), Umesh Jadhav (Gulbarga), Bhagwanth Khuba (Bidar), Pralhad Joshi (Dharwad), B Y Raghavendra (Shimoga), P C Mohan (Bangalore Central) and Tejasvi Surya (Bangalore South). Former Minister V Somonna has been given a ticket from Tumkur, which was represented by G S Basavaraj, and in the Davangere segment, sitting MP G M Siddeshwara has been replaced by his wife Gayathri Siddeshwara.

Note: The R Kannada-P-Marq Opinion Poll, conducted from March 5 to March 15, 2024, gathered opinions from more than 3,800 respondents (error margin +-3%), providing valuable insights into voter preferences and trends leading up to the elections.