Agartala:  The surprise nominations of former chief minister Biplab Kumar Deb in one Lok Sabha seat and Maharani Kriti Singh Debbarma, a member of the erstwhile royal family of Tripura, in the other, by the BJP have created a buzz in the ruling coalition which recently found a new entrant, Tipra Motha, a former opposition party.

The selection of Debbarma, a political greenhorn and the sister of Tipra Motha founder Pradyot Debbarma, is to garner tribal votes in the East Tripura seat as the party has a strong support base among the indigenous people of the state. Her nomination made a section of Tipra Motha and BJP tribal workers unhappy.

Deb, who was forced to quit as chief minister ahead of the 2023 assembly elections, is now a Rajya Sabha MP. He will contest from the West Tripura seat currently held by Union Minister of State for Social Justice and Empowerment, Pratima Bhoumik. She has not joined any party programme since Deb’s name was announced in that seat.

The CPI(M), which ruled the small northeastern state for 25 years in a row till 2018, is unlikely to make any significant impact in the Lok Sabha elections.

Elections to two Lok Sabha seats in Tripura will be held on April 19 and 26.

Here is a SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) analysis of the parties in Tripura:

BJP (Bhartiya Janata Party)

Strengths

• Although Deb was sidelined for over one year in the state’s political landscape, he is still popular among a section of the people, especially women and youths.
• Brand Modi and Centre’s developmental schemes will work in favour of the ruling party’s candidate.
• Deep-rooted organisation of the BJP, which will also help Tipra Motha get non-tribal votes.

Weaknesses 

• Incumbent MP Pratima Bhoumik, who holds considerable sway in Sepahajala district, has not joined BJP programmes since Deb was named, triggering speculations of non-cooperation from her side.
• In West Tripura, minority voters are traditionally a deciding factor. The BJP has to secure their confidence.
•  A section of BJP tribal leaders seems unhappy with incumbent MP Rebati Tripura being dropped in East Tripura.

Opportunities 

• Coming together of BJP and Tipra Motha will help each other as it will ensure a direct fight with Congress-Left.
• By fielding a new face in West Tripura, the BJP sought to neutralise the anti-incumbency factor.

Threats

• Tipra Motha’s popular demand for Greater Tipraland state for tribals has been put on the back burner, which might backfire.
• Issues like unemployment, price rise and drug menace might go against the ruling BJP.

Opposition (Congress, CPI-M)

Strengths

• CPI(M) will attempt to expose Tipra Motha’s “opportunist move” of joining the government.

Weaknesses

• Infighting in Congress might help the BJP.