Punjab Exit Polls 2022: P-MARQ predicts victory for AAP in Punjab as INC, SAD trail behind

Three days prior to the counting of votes of assembly elections in Punjab, the P-Marq Exit Polls on Monday gave a snapshot projection of the results. As per P-Marq, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is to win Punjab with a majority as the Indian National Congress (INC) appears to be way behind, followed by the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) alliance and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) alliance. 

The P-Marq Exit Poll projected AAP to win 62-70 seats while INC is to win 23-31 seats. The SAD and the BJP are projected to win 16-24 seats and 1-3 seats respectively. Also, others are projected to win 1-3 seats, in the 117 member assembly of Punjab. 

In terms of the vote percentage, projections are that the AAP will secure 35.6 percent of votes. INC will secure 26.9 percent while SAD and BJP+ will secure 22.3 % and 9.7% respectively. Others are projected to win 5.5% of the total votes. The single-phase election in Punjab was conducted on February 20 and the voter turnout was recorded at 72 percent, a 5 percent drop from 2017. 

P-Marq Exit Polls

Here is what the region-wise projections indicate:

Going to the region-wise analysis, Punjab can be divided into three-wide regions namely Majha, Doba and Malwa. 

Majha

In the 2017 elections, Congress had won 23 out of 25 seats in the region. Only three seats were won by the SAD-BJP alliance – two by Akali candidates and one BJP candidate won while AAP won no seats.

As per the PMARQ Exit Poll, Congress will win 6-10 seats, AAP 8-12 seats, SAD 7-11 seats, BJP 1-3 seats and others 0-1 seats. 

Doaba

In the 2017 elections, Congress had won 15 out of 23 seats in the region. SAD-BJP alliance won 5 seats, AAP won 2 seats and others won 1 seat. 

As per the PMARQ Exit Poll,  AAP will win 5-10 seats, Congress 7-11 seats, SAD 4-8 seats, BJP 0-3 seats, and others 0-1 seats. 

Malwa

In the 2017 elections, Congress had won 40 out of 69 seats in the region. SAD-BJP alliance won 8 seats, AAP won 18 seats and others won 3 seats.

As per the PMARQ Exit Poll, AAP will win 44-54 seats, Congress 7-11 seats, SAD 7-11 seats, BJP 1-3 seats, and others 0-1 seats.