UP Opinion Poll 2022: P-MARQ Poll predicts Yogi Adityanath's return with BJP win

The elections for the 403-member Uttar Pradesh Assembly will take place in seven phases from February 10 to March 7. The major political parties in the fray are the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Indian National Congress and debutant Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). P-MARQ has conducted a comprehensive survey to bring on-point Opinion Poll on 2022 Assembly polls.

The P-MARQ Poll was conducted with a sample size of 16,390 individuals in the state of Uttar Pradesh from January 5 to January 16. The survey not only beams the overall state-wise prediction, seat and vote share, but it will also forecast the performance of the government and preferred Chief Minister.

Uttar Pradesh opinion poll: Who will win?

The Chief Minister Yogi Adityanth-led BJP+ is likely to retain power with the party projected to win 252-272 seats in the 403-member Assembly. On the other hand, Samajwadi Party+ is looking to bag 111-131 seats. Other parties are likely to have small gains. BSP is likely to bag 8 - 16, Congress 3-9 and others 0-4 seats. 

	Vote % prediction	Seat prediction
BJP+	41.3%	252-272
SP+	33.1%	111-131
BSP	13.1%	8-16
Congress	6.9%	3-9
Others	5.6%	0-4
Total	100%	403

18% of the respondents termed the BJP government's performance in the state as excellent while 38% termed it good. 25% of respondents believed it was average while 19% termed it poor. On the Centre's front, 34% of respondents were super happy with PM Modi government's performance and called it excellent, 28% termed it good, 24% average and 14% poor, respectively.

Region-wise Seat breakup

Party	Poorvanchal	Awadh	Western UP	Bundelkhand	Total
BJP+	100	97	109	19	325
SP+	14	12	21	0	47
SP	10	06	03	0	19
INC	02	03	02	0	7
Others	04	0	01	0	5
Total	130	118	136	19	403

Opinion Poll: Would the shift of ministers and MLAs increase SP's chances?

Moreover, 61% respondents felt that the last-minute shift of ministers and MLAs to SP's would increase its chances. 

Response	% Respondents
YES	61%
NO	32%
Can’t Say	7%
Total	100%

Opinion Poll: Who do you prefer as the CM of the state?

Current Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath was the first choice for the top post of 41.2% of respondents, while 29.4% of respondents were in favour of Samajwadi Party's Akhilesh Yadav. BSP's Mayawati received support from 13.4% of respondents. 5.8% of the people also believed that Priyanka Gandhi from the Congress can helm the position in the state.

	% of Respondents
Yogi Adityanath	41.2%
Akhilesh Yadav	29.4%
Mayawati	13.4%
Priyanka Gandhi	5.8%
Jayant Chaudhary	0.9%
Other	9.3%
Total	100%

Opinion Poll: Which is the biggest issue according to you?

Unemployment and farmers protest has been termed as the biggest issue by 20% of respondents respectively, followed by an increase in fuel prices and essential commodities (15%), Lack of widespread availably of water, (14%) bad roads (8%), Issue of stray cattle (6%) and other issues (10%).

Are you satisfied with the performance of your MLA? (Survey conducted in BJP constituencies)

	% Respondents
YES	38%
NO	54%
Can’t Say	8%
Total	8%

Which is the biggest factor for your vote?

	% of Respondents
Satisfied with the overall performance of BJP state government	22%
Performance and Image of PM Modi	16%
Anti-incumbency, need for change	15%
Dissatisfaction with the current government due to farmer issues	10%
Improvement in law and order	10%
Religion	6%
Ration scheme, and other schemes like PM Kisan, PMAY	5%
Others	10%
Total	100%

Methodology

The methodology is random stratified sampling using predominantly three techniques Field surveys, CATI, and IDIs with key people in districts and assembly constituencies. We then use a probabilistic model to determine the number of seats a party is going to win from the estimated vote share. The survey results have been adjusted in proportion to reflect the state and district population across age groups, religion, gender and caste. The questions in the survey were designed to reflect the current scenario electorally and politically and to gauge the critical factors that might play a role in this election. There is error margin of 3%.

Political scenario in Uttar Pradesh

In the 2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, BJP had won a whopping 312 seats in the 403-member House, whereas BSP could win only 19 seats. On the other hand, the SP-Congress alliance failed to bear fruit as it could win in only 54 constituencies. While this was seen as a mandate for PM Modi as BJP had not declared any CM candidate, Gorakhpur MP Yogi Adityanath was a surprise pick for the post. 

Though the Asaduddin Owaisi-led party initially joined the Om Prakash Rajbhar-led 'Bhagidari Sankalp Morcha', it was left in the lurch after Rajbhar's Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party forged a pre-poll alliance with SP. As of now, AIMIM has revealed its intention to contest 100 seats in UP. The upcoming UP Assembly election will be held in 7 phases beginning February 10 whereas the counting of votes shall take place on March 10.