Uttarakhand opinion poll: P-MARQ Poll predicts close race between BJP & Congress

The elections for the 70-member Uttarakhand Assembly will take phase in a single phase on February 14. The major political parties in the fray are the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Indian National Congress and debutant Aam Aadmi Party. P-MARQ has conducted a comprehensive survey to bring on-point Opinion Poll on 2022 Assembly polls.

Methodology

The methodology is random stratified sampling using predominantly three techniques Field surveys, CATI, and IDIs with key people in districts and assembly constituencies. We then use a probabilistic model to determine the number of seats a party is going to win from the estimated vote share. The survey results have been adjusted in proportion to reflect the state and district population across age groups, religion, gender and caste. The questions in the survey were designed to reflect the current scenario electorally and politically and to gauge the critical factors that might play a role in this election. There is error margin of 3%.

The P-MARQ Poll was conducted with a sample size of 6,670 individuals in the state of Uttarakhand from January 6 to January 16. The survey not only beams the overall state-wise prediction, seat and vote share, but it will also forecast the performance of the government and preferred Chief Minister.

Uttarakhand opinion poll: Who will win?

The Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami-led BJP is likely to retain power with the party projected to win 36-42 seats in the 70-member Assembly. On the other hand, Congress is likely to see major gains. The grand old party is projected to win 25-31 seats, while debutant AAP can win 0-2 seats. The other parties and independents are likely to win 1-3 seats.

20% of the respondents termed the BJP government's performance in the state as excellent while 29% termed it good. 36% of respondents believed it was average while 15% termed it poor. On the Centre's front, 31% of respondents were super happy with PM Modi government's performance and called it excellent, 33% termed it good, 24% average and 12% poor, respectively.

Opinion Poll: Who do you prefer as the CM of the state?

Current Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami was the first choice for the top post of 34% of respondents, while 37% of respondents were in favour of Congress' Harish Rawat. Aam Aadmi Party's Col Ajay Kothiyal received support from 9% of respondents. 8% of the people also believed that anybody from the BJP can be at the helm position in the state.

Opinion Poll: Which is the biggest issue according to you?

Unemployment has been termed as the biggest issue by 34% of respondents, followed by an increase in fuel prices and essential commodities (24%), bad roads (14%), corruption (7%), Lack of widespread availably of water (6%) and other issues (15%).

Are you satisfied with the performance of your MLA? (Survey conducted in BJP constituencies)

Which is the biggest factor for your vote?

Political scenario in Uttarakhand-

In the 2017 Uttarakhand Assembly election, the Harish Rawat-led Congress government lost power after BJP won 57 seats in the 70-member House. Thereafter, Trivendra Singh Rawat served as the Chief Minister of the state until 9 March, when he resigned because of a "collection decision" taken by the BJP top brass. His successor and Lok Sabha MP Tirath Singh Rawat's tenure as the CM was also short-lived and was replaced by Pushkar Singh Dhami as the Election Commission was unlikely to conduct a by-election owing to the COVID-19 situation.

AAP has tried to make inroads in the state in the last few months with a mass outreach campaign titled 'Uttarakhand me bhi Kejriwal', increasing online presence besides regular visits by high-profile leaders such as Manish Sisodia. However, non-BJP and non-Congress parties have failed to make any gains in Uttarakhand so far which is evident from the failure of Uttarakhand Kranti Dal, SP and BSP. While AAP has declared Colonel (retd.) Ajay Kothiyal as its CM face, Congress is yet to confirm whether Harish Rawat will be projected as its Chief Ministerial candidate.