What Today’s Chanakya Predicts on Who Will Form Government in Kerala?

New Delhi: Fresh projections released by Today’s Chanakya for the 2026 Kerala Assembly elections indicate a closely fought contest between the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) and the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF), with the UDF holding a slight advantage in both vote share and seats. The BJP-led alliance (BJP+) is projected to remain a distant third player in the state’s electoral landscape.    

According to Today’s Chanakya, the UDF is forecast to secure 40% ± 3% vote share and 69 ± 9 seats, while the LDF is estimated at 38% ± 3% vote share and 64 ± 9 seats. The BJP+ is projected to receive 20% ± 3% vote share and 7 ± 4 seats, and Others are expected to account for 2% ± 1% vote share and 0 ± 1 seats. 

The agency has emphasized that the ± (Plus/Minus) margins must be read alongside the central projections, which represent the core estimate. 

Caste Equations: Fragmented Support Across Communities

Today’s Chanakya’s analysis also highlights how major caste and community groups are aligning in this election, pointing to a fragmented but decisive voter base.

Among the Nair community, BJP+ leads with 39% support, followed by UDF at 32% and LDF at 28%. The Muslim vote remains heavily consolidated behind the UDF at 62%, with LDF receiving 33% and BJP+ just 4%. In contrast, the Ezhava community shows strong backing for the LDF at 47%, compared to BJP+ at 32% and UDF at 20%.

Among Christians, the UDF dominates with 53% support, while LDF gets 34% and BJP+ 11%. The Scheduled Caste (SC) vote appears to favour the LDF at 49%, followed by UDF at 31% and BJP+ at 18%. The organisation notes that caste figures carry a margin of error of ± 3% and totals may not add up to 100% due to “Other party & DNT” categories. 

What are Other Exit Polls Saying? 

Projections from other major exit poll agencies broadly align with Today’s Chanakya’s findings, though many suggest a more comfortable victory for the UDF.

Axis My India presents one of the most decisive forecasts, projecting the UDF at 78–90 seats, the LDF at 49–62 seats, and the NDA at 0–3 seats, indicating a clear majority for the Congress-led alliance. JVC Exit Poll also places the UDF ahead with 72–84 seats, while giving the LDF 52–60 seats and NDA 3–8 seats, pointing to a narrower but still clear lead.

Matrize and P-MARQ both show similar trends, estimating the UDF at 70–75 seats, the LDF at 52–61 seats, and the NDA at 3–7 seats, suggesting a competitive contest but with a consistent UDF advantage.

Taken together, the consolidated exit poll picture places the UDF in the range of 70–90 seats, the LDF at 49–62 seats, and the NDA at 0–8 seats, reinforcing the likelihood of a power shift in the state.

When are the Final Results of This Election Expected? 

The Assembly elections in Kerala, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, and Puducherry were held from April 9 to April 29. While Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Assam, and Puducherry voted in a single phase, West Bengal held elections in two stages on April 23 and 29.

Voters should be aware that exit polls have not always been accurate in the past. The end result will be known on 4 May, when votes are counted across all five states.