Kerala Exit Polls 2021 Live Updates: Republic-CNX poll projects LDF to defeat UDF again

The Republic-CNX Exit polls survey has also projected a -0.98 swing of votes against the LDF marking a decrease from 43.48 in 2016 to 42.50 in the Left government's vote share. An -1.86 swing of votes in UDF's vote share. The NDA is projected to mark a +3.60 swing taking its vote share to 18.56. 

Breaking down the party wise seat prediction, the CPM is projected to lose its strength in the Kerala Assembly from the current 58 seats to somewhere between 49-55. The Congress is expected to win nearly +10-14 seats in the 2020 Assembly Elections and take its total count to somewhere between 32-36. The BJP is predicted to win 01-05 seats whereas the IUML is predicted to win between 13-17 seats. 

As the fate of the Kerala Assembly Elections 2021 hangs in balance, the Republic-CNX Exit Polls has projected a second consecutive win for the Left government in the state. The LDF is predicted to win anywhere between 72-80 seats, marking a decline from the 91 seats that it won in the 2016 elections. On the other hand, the Republic-CNX Exit Poll for Kerala has projected a jump for the UDF. The Congress led alliance is projected to win between 58-64 seats, marking a +11-17 increase in the number of seats. The NDA alliance led by the BJP is approximated to win around 1-5 seats. 

After conclusion of the polling on April 6, all eyes have now turned towards May 2 when the fate of the 15th Kerala Legislative Assembly shall be decided on May 2. While the power battle pre-dominantly remains between the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) and the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF), the BJP has been vying to make in-roads into the southern state. Led by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, the LDF rides high on confidence after sweeping victory in the recently concluded civic polls, however, it has also been dented by several scams including the multi-crore gold smuggling case. 

As BJP eyes to wade into the pre-dominant battle between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the United Democratic Fund (UDF), the fate of Kerala's 15 Legisalative Assembly is all set to be decided on May 2. The single-phase polling in Kerala was held on April 6 and witnessed a final voter turnout of 74.20%. The focus remains on the battle between the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) and the CPM-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) - both alliances who have been exchanging power over the last decade or so. 

While BJP leaders including former chief Amit Shah and current President JP Nadda have exuded confidence in a massive victory, the scales seemed to be tipped towards the LDF as it was seen in the recently concluded civic body polls which the alliance swept under the leadership of CM Pinarayi Vijayan. The Congress under Ramesh Chennithala eyes to increase its tally from the 47 seats which it won in the previous election. 

Both Congress and BJP have used the matter of Sabarimala temple against the ruling party of the state. The Pinarayi Vijayan-led government has also faced a backlash due to the Gold smuggling case that emerged in the lead-up to the elections. 
 

Polling for the Kerala Assembly which concluded on April 6, witnessed a high-pitched clash as electoral stalwarts Oommen Chandy, Pinarayi Vijayan, Ramesh Chennithala & C Raghunath jumped into the fray. The 2021 Kerala Assembly Elections 2021 also saw 'Metroman' E Sreedharan make his electoral debut on a BJP ticket. The 88-year-old who recently joined the BJP before the polls, is projected to be the saffron party's CM face. 

In the 140 seater Kerala Legislative Assembly at present, LDF-led by the CPI(M) holds the majority with 91 seats. Out of the 91 LDF seats, 58 belong to the CPI(M), 19 to the CPI, JD(S) holds 3, IND owns 4, KC(M) has 2 to its name while NCP, KC(B), C(S), and INL hold one each. 

Breaking down the 41 seats held by the Congress-led UDF, the INC has 21 seats, the IUML has 18, KC(J) has one belongs to NCK. 

The BJP holds only one seat in the 140-seater Kerala Assembly and there are 7 vacant seats. 

In a bid to get you the closest and fastest projections for the Kerala Assembly Elections, CNX - a Delhi based research and survey agency - conducted a survey at polling booths across Kerala. To guage the mood of the 'Aam Aadmi', a questionnaire was prepared by the Republic-CNX team to understand the possible voting behavior of Keralites. 

A quantitative survey using a structured questionnaire was handed out randomly to 35,280 men and women from section A and section B households, in the age group of 18 to 60. The survey team visited all the 140 Assembly seats in the states going deep into by-lanes and meeting people from all walks of life.

The respondents were selected randomly keeping in view the demographic, professional and migration dimensions. On the whole, the sample respondents came from all walks of life as cobblers, tailors, barbers, daily wage laborers, petty shop keepers, migrant laborers, mechanics, registered medical practitioners, auto rickshaw drivers, taxi drivers, real estate dealers, etc. (The results are subject to a margin of error 2.5 percent)

In the 2016 assembly polls a neck-to-neck fight had been predicted in exit polls between LDF and then-ruling UDF, though in the end the LDF swept the elections with a comfortable majority of 91 seats while the UDF won 47 seats. The NDA alliance managed just one solitary seat in Kerala, with veteran O Rajagopalan winning the Nemom constituency by a margin of 8,671 votes. The BJP failed to secure any seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections though its vote percentage increased considerably.