National Approval Ratings: In Assam, UPA is projected to be one seat ahead of NDA

With the dates for the all-important Lok Sabha polls now announced, the various political parties and the citizens of India have complete clarity on exactly when the country will once again undertake the largest exercise in democracy anywhere in the world.

To present a snapshot projection of where the various parties stand at the moment in different states, Republic TV and CVoter have published the National Approval Ratings which present a complete picture of what would happen if elections are held today.

Here's the projection for Assam are: 

Seat-share 

UPA- 7
NDA-6
AIUDF- 1

Vote-share

UPA- 42.6%
NDA-42.5%
AIUDF- 3.9%
Others-11%

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The projections for Assam have remained stagnant in comparison to the last National Approval Ratings that were conducted in January. 

Congress-led UPA is projected to secure 7 seats, followed by NDA with 6 seats and AIUDF to secure 1. As far as vote-share is concerned, there are reasons for UPA to worry as the vote share is reduced to 42.6% from 44.6% the last time and the same applied for NDA as well whose vote-share has reduced from 44.3% to 42.5%, standing at a waffer-thin distance to UPA. 

While AIUDF is projected to secure 3.9% or vote-share, followed by 11% for Others. 

In 2014, out of the 14 seats in Assam, BJP grabbed 7 seats, followed by AIUDF and Congress gaining 3 each and IND won 1 seat

In December edition, the BJP + BPF+AGP combine was projected to hold seat share of 9 seats with the BJP gaining one seat when compared to 2014 general elections. On the other hand, UPA was projected to grab 4 seats. When compared to the 2014 elections, it was a one-seat gain for UPA in 2019.

In November edition, 9 of the 14 were slated to swing the NDA way, 4 were to swing the UPA way and one was projected to be grabbed by AIUDF. While overall it seemed like a complete status quo in terms of seat share.  

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A parallel CVoter survey has already indicated that citizens' satisfaction with the performance of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been on an upswing since the Feb 1 budget where a number of significant announcements were made - especially for farmers and for middle-class taxpayers. This satisfaction index the skyrocketed following India's air-strike against Pakistani terror bases across the LoC. Simultaneously, the satisfaction index of Congress president Rahul Gandhi has spiralled downward in the same time-frame.