West Bengal Exit Poll Results 2021: BJP projected to surpass TMC; become largest party

As BJP eyes to break the Bengal frontier on May 2, the Republic-CNX Exit polls have projected the BJP trumping TMC. The saffron party has been projected to win 138-148 seats, crossing the halfway mark of 146 seats - making it the largest party. Meanwhile, TMC is projected to win 128-138 seats, and the Congress-Left alliance projected to win 11-21 seats. The two-term CM & TMC Supremo Mamata Banerjee faces a stiff challenge from the emerging BJP, the Congress-Left-ISF alliance and AIMIM.  Bengal Exit polls:

Seat Share:

The BJP is projected to win 138-148 seats defeating the TMC which is projected to win 128-138 seats, while the Congress-Left-ISF alliance is projected to win 11-21 seats. Republic-CNX Exit polls project a party-wise win as such - TMC (126-136 seats), BJP (138-148 seats), Left Front (4-8 seats), Congress (6-9 seats) ISF (1-3 seats), Others (1-3 seats)

• BJP: 138-148 seats
• TMC: 128-138 seats
• Left: 11-21 seats
• Others: 0

Party wise seat share:

• BJP: 138-148 seats
• TMC: 126-136 seats
• Left: 4-8 seats
• Congress: 6-9 seats
• ISF: 1-3 seats
• Others: 1-3 seats

* As of 1 PM on Phase - 8 polls (29 April 2021)

Vote Share:

With BJP set to be the single-largest party, the BJP is projected to win 42.75% of the votes, while TMC is projected to win 40.07% of the votes. Left-Congress is projected to win 14.42% of the votes, while others are projected to win 2.76% of the votes. 

• TMC+: 40.07%
• BJP+: 42.75% 
• Left+: 14.42%
• Others: 2.76%

* As of 1 PM on Phase - 8 polls (29 April 2021)

2016 Assembly performance

Mamata Banerjee-led TMC had swept the 2016 Assembly polls by bagging 211 seats in the 294-member Assembly. In West Bengal, 294 seats are up for grabs and people will be able to cast their votes at 1,01,916 polling stations. Buoyed by its stupendous 2019 Lok Sabha performance, BJP is looking to oust TMC and is aiming at winning over 200 seats this time. While Congress was the second-largest party in 2016, it has tied with the Left and the ISF to form the Sanjukta Morcha.

In 2021, amid COVID surge and widespread poll violence, EC  had announced that the battle for the 294-seat Assembly will be held in 8 phases - March 27, April 1, 6, 10, 17, 22, 26 and 29. Results will be held on May 2. Polling on two seats - Jangipur and Samserganj - has been deferred due to death of two candidates. These two seats will go to polls on May 16, and the results for these two seats will be declared on May 19.

Key seats & battles:

• Nandigram: Mamata Vs Suvendu

In a bid to protect her home-turf, Mamata Banerjee will battle BJP's Suvendu Adhikari in the place which had catapulted Mamata Banerjee into the CM post in 2011. Apart from them, CPI(M) has fielded Minakshi Mukherjee in a bid to regain lost ground for the CPI(M).

Miffed by the rising influence of Banerjee's nephew - Abhishek Banerjee and IPAC poll strategist Prashant Kishor in Trinamool, Adhikari along with several other MLAs had switched to BJP. Taking the battle head-on, Banerjee had announced she will contest polls from Nandigram instead of her bastion Bhowanipore, leading to BJP fielding Adhikari. While Nandigram is a Trinamool bastion, it is the Adhikari family - Sisir, Suvendu, Dibyendu and Soumendu which has massive sway in the district - setting up a Mamata Vs Adhikari family battle. Amid the farmers' protest too, the Nandigram land agitation has come to the forefront, with Mamata accusing BJP of 'selling off farmers' lands to businessmen'.

Moreover, while TMC has alleged that Adhikari has harboured 'criminals' in various parts of Nandigram ahead of phase-2, BJP submitted an alleged tape of a conversation between CM Mamata Banerjee and BJP's Nandigram Vice-president Praloy Paul where the CM is heard seeking Paul's help in Nandigram, while he refuses to leave Suvendu Adhikari's side. Adhikari won Nandigram in 2016 defeating Left's Abdul Kadir, till he quit Trinamool recently, while his brother Dibyendu still remains a TMC MP. His father- Sisir Adhikari - a TMC MP has now joined BJP.

The Nandigram poll battle saw the most high-voltage campaign as Mamata played her 'Bengal's daughter' card, while Suvendu has accused TMC of only 'promoting the nephew'. Mamata, who recently suffered an injury while campaigning in Nandigram - which she has blamed on BJP, has vowed to conduct her campaign on a wheelchair with the BJP calling it 'sympathy politics'. Mamata has also termed Adhikaris as 'Mir Jafars' while Suvendu has fearmongered that 'Bengal will become mini-Pakistan' if Mamata is re-elected.

Purulia: In a rare three-way fight, sitting Congress MLA Sudip Mukherjee who joined the BJP recently will face Congress' Partha Pratim Banerjee and Trinamool's Sujoy Banerjee. The seat which has a 19.35% SC population and 19.22% ST population as per 2011 census, has been held by both Congress and TMC. In 2011, TMC's KP Singh Deo trounced CPM's Kaushik Mazumdar by 26,487 votes, while in 2016, Congress' Sudip Mukherjee defeated TMC's Dibyajyoti Prasad Singh Deo by a slim margin of 4,911 votes

Jhargram: A TMC stronghold which had been vacant since TMC MLA Sukumar Hansda died in 2020, will see a face off between actor & TMC leader Birbaha Hansda against BJP's Sukhmoy Satpati. The constituency which is dominated by SC/ST communities - Santhals and Kurmis is being eyed by both parties as Kurmis dominate in about 30 out of the 42 constituencies in the region. In 2016, Hansda won the constituency with 99233 votes.

Diamond Harbour: A TMC stronghold, Diamond Harbour will witness a battle for power among a veteran in politics 70-year-old Pannalal Halder of TMC, a two-time sitting MLA of TMC who is contesting from BJP ticket this time, Dipak Kumar Halder and Prateek Ur Rahaman of CPM. In 2016, Dipak Kumar Halder had defeated CPM's Subhra Sau by 20,774 votes and won the constituency for TMC, but now that he has changed sides, it would interesting to see if TMC, with Mamata Banerjee's nephew And Member of Parliament from the region Abhishek Banerjee, campaigning effortlessly, is retaining the constituency. 

Howrah Dakshin: Falling under the Howrah district, this constituency will see a faceoff between BJP's Rantidev Sengupta and TMC's Nandita Chowdhury. Sengupta is the editor of the RSS' Bengali mouthpiece Swastika. While the senior journalist initially expressed his unwillingness to contest the election and urged BJP to select another candidate for the seat, he reversed his stance after speaking to the party leadership. In the previous election, TMC's Brajamohan Majumder beat CPI(M)'s Arindam Basu by over 16,000 votes.

Tarakeswar: Swapan Dasgupta (BJP) Vs Ramendu Sinha Roy (TMC)

The high-stakes battle for the Hindu pilgrim site Tarkeshwar in Hooghly came into focus after BJP fielded its sitting Rajya Sabha MP Swapan Dasgupta against TMC's Ramendu Sinha Roy and CPI(M)’s Sujit Ghosh. With PM Modi himself campaigning for Dasgupta, who resigned from Rajya Sabha to contest for the seat, the BJP eyes to make inroads into the TMC bastion. Pitting 'Jai Shree Ram' against TMC's 'outsider' jibe, Dasgupta - an aspiring CM candidate relies heavily on the 93.22% Hindu population to oust Trinamool which has held the seat since 2011. TMC's Rachhpal Singh had trounced NCP's  Surajit Ghosh in 2016, while he had defeated CPM's  Pratim Chatterjee in 2011.

CNX Exit poll methodology

To understand that which party has the edge after voting in the state, CNX, a Delhi based research & survey agency, conducted the exit poll survey at the polling booths in West Bengal. A list of questions was prepared by the Republic-CNX team to understand the possible voting behavior of the Bengali people in the assembly elections in the state. A quantitative survey using a structured questionnaire was administered randomly to 35,280 men and women from section A and section B households, in the age group of 18 to 60. The survey team visited all the 294 Assembly seats in the states going deep into by-lanes and meeting people from all walks of life.