Maharashtra is likely to receive less rainfall this year, as per Skymet, on account of the southwest monsoons being slightly delayed. The first half of the season is possibly looking at deficient rainfall, with 24 out of the 36 districts in the state forecast to witness a below normal monsoon, the private weather forecasting agency has reported.
The first showers in Mumbai are predicted to be delayed by a week, with rains only beginning in earnest in the second half of June. Mahesh Palawat, Vice-President, Meteorology and Climate Change, at Skymet said:
"This has been the second driest pre-monsoon season in the last 65 years, with the lowest being recorded in 2012 when countrywide cumulative rainfall deficiency had mounted to 31 per cent."
Meanwhile, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that Kerala will receive rainfall by June 1st and Maharashtra by June 8th with a slight withdrawal in September. The weather models clearly indicate that regions like Vidharba, Marathawada and adjoining parts of Maharashtra will see a deficit in the rains.
“Droughtlike conditions are expected across some districts of Marathwada. Not all 24 districts will get severely deficient rainfall, but overall rain will be less.” said Palawat
The agency has confirmed that India will overall receive below normal rainfall. There is a chance of El Nino, a weather phenomenon caused when warm water from the western Pacific Ocean flows towards the east, which is generally believed to result in a lower-than-usual monsoon.
Jatin Singh, Managing Director, Skymet said:
"The Pacific Ocean has become strongly warmer than average. The scenario changed in February and presently, moderate El Niño conditions are prevailing over the Pacific Ocean. In fact, El Niño could be declared anytime now. Other factors such as the Indian Ocean Dipole might help support rainfall activity during August and September, while it is still early to factor in other influences."
Even so, the pre-monsoon activities have commenced in Maharashtra. Solapur has recorded moderate rains, whereas light rains have been recorded over Parbani and Chandrapur. These light showers have somehow helped in pulling down temperatures across many parts of Vidarbha, Marathawada and South Madhya Maharashtra.