IMD releases monthly outlook for temperature, rainfall; May to be cooler than usual

As the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) have been issuing seasonal outlooks for temperatures over the country for both hot and cold weather seasons since 2016, the IMD has now released the monthly temperature and rainfall outlook. The Met Department's current strategy is based on the newly developed MultiModel Ensemble (MME) based forecasting system.

The MME approach uses the coupled global climate models (CGCMs) from different global climate prediction and research centres including IMD/MoES Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) model. 

Monthly temperature and rainfall outlook for May 2023

• Monthly maximum temperatures for May 2023 are expected to be above normal over east-central and east India and some parts of Northeast and Peninsular India. However, it is likely to be normal to below normal over the northwest and west-central India.
• Most parts of the country are expected to experience normal to below-normal minimum temperatures except some parts of northwest and east India where above-normal minimum temperatures are likely in some areas. 
• Above-normal heat wave days are expected over most parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, east Uttar Pradesh, coastal Andhra Pradesh, and some parts of North Chhattisgarh, east Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, and coastal Gujarat during May 2023.
• The rainfall during May 2023 averaged over the country is most likely to be normal (91-109% of LPA). The LPA of rainfall over the country during May based on data from 1971-2020 is about 61.4 mm.
• Normal to above-normal rainfall is expected over northwest India, many parts of west-central India, and the northern part of Peninsular India. However, below-normal rainfall is likely in most parts of northeast India, many parts of east-central India and south peninsular India. 

According to IMD, currently, neutral ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) conditions are present over the equatorial Pacific region. The latest MMCFS (Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System) forecast suggests that these neutral conditions are likely to continue in May 2023.

In addition to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions over the Pacific, other factors such as Indian Ocean SSTs also influence the climate in India. Currently, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are present over the Indian Ocean. The latest climate models indicate that positive IOD conditions are likely to develop during the upcoming season.

According to IMD, in Northwest India, including Delhi, Haryana, and Punjab, the maximum temperature (monthly) will likely be normal to below normal for the month of May, whereas rainfall is expected to be about normal to above normal.

Rainfall in Madhya Pradesh 

On Wednesday, another phase of rainfall and strong wind began in Madhya Pradesh as western disturbance is activated and moisture is coming from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. Weather will remain the same till the first week of May.

Meteorology Department said that Bhopal and Jabalpur will witness heavy/light rainfall for the next four days. Officials said that the western disturbances began on April 26 and will remain active till May 4. Lightning, thundering, drizzling, clouds, and rainfall activities will usher in the State till the first week of May.

Rainfall in Kerala 

According to IMD, heavy rains will continue to lash various parts of Kerala till Monday, May 1. The state has been recording rains in isolated places for the past five days. In view of the rain forecast, IMD has sounded a yellow alert in Idukki for the next five days. 

The IMD has issued yellow alerts for Ernakulam, Idukki and Palakkad districts on Saturday. On Sunday, isolated heavy rainfall is expected at Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Pathanamthitta, Alappuzha, Kottayam, Ernakulam and Palakkad. Apart from these districts, Thrissur too has been given a yellow alert for Monday. On May 2, isolated heavy rainfall is expected in four districts such as Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Pathanamthitta and Idukki. Light to moderate rainfall is expected in all other districts on these days. 

Temperature in Karnataka

Amid high temperatures in several parts of Karnataka, the Met Department has issued a heavy rainfall warning over some isolated pockets in the state till Sunday. Heavy rain accompanied by thunderstorms or hailstorms is likely to occur at isolated places over Bidar, Kalaburagi, Yadgir, Bagalkote, Raichur, Vijayapura, Ballari, Chitradurga, Davanagere, Chikkamagaluru, Kodagu and Mysuru districts, the IMD said in its daily bulletin.

#WATCH | Rain lashes several parts of Kalaburagi, Karnataka pic.twitter.com/EkYpkraIOA

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