Captain Amarinder’s super alliance against Congress: Biggest trump card for Punjab polls?

In a major political development, former Punjab Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh, who quit the Congress in September, has decided to float his own party to 'serve the interests of Punjab.' The 79-year-old veteran leader made the announcement late on Tuesday, just months ahead of the 2022 Punjab Assembly elections, and added in a tantalising alliance hint. 

Captain Amarinder has confirmed that his party would be open to forging an alliance with other 'like minded' Opposition parties in Punjab. Significantly, Captain said he is "hopeful of a seat arrangement" with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) if the issue of farmers protest is resolved. The farm laws will remain the only issue standing between a very likely alliance of Captain Amarinder and the saffron party, and as per sources, a resolution could also be in offing. 

It may be noted that within days of stepping down as the Chief Minister of Punjab, Captain Amarinder had held a meeting with Union Home Minister Amit Shah in Delhi. The meeting led to speculations that a party-less Captain could find common ground with the BJP over nationalism. However, at that time he remained tight-lipped about his future political plans, only stating that he would not personally be joining the BJP as its party leader. 

Besides the BJP, the former Chief Minister on Monday said he is looking at an alliance with like-minded parties such as breakaway Akali groups, particularly the Dhindsa and Brahmpura (SAD Sanyukt) factions. 

In the 2017 Punjab Legislative Assembly election, Captain Amarinder Singh, a widely respected and popular leader,  was single-handedly able to revive the Congress in Punjab after 10 years, beating the SAD-BJP alliance as well as AAP with a landslide victory of 77 seats in the 117-member Assembly.  Meanwhile, the Aam Aadmi Party emerged as the main opposition, winning 20 seats.

Congress could forever mourn Capt Amarinder's exit

Captain Amarinder Singh undoubtedly deserves credit for the Congress' revival in Punjab not just in the 2017 elections, but way beyond that. Already blamed for Operation Blue Star of 1984, the Congress rule was associated with enforced disappearances and encounter killings of Sikhs in the 90s. The party needed a face that wasn't tainted by its past and that's where Captain Amarinder Singh came into the picture.

The 75-year-old Sikh leader campaigned alone for the 2017 Punjab polls while Rahul Gandhi and the rest of the Congress leadership made futile attempts to win Uttar Pradesh. The campaign of 'Har Ghar Captain' and Captain's policies for the unemployed youth heralded the Congress to an unprecedented victory of winning two-thirds of the total 117 seats for the first time in history. 

Since then, the Congress has dominated elections in the state, winning a majority of seats in the Lok Sabha elections, bypolls and local body polls, while the Vadra-Gandhis couldn’t get a pittance nationally. Yet, Congress failed to retain perhaps its best leader. 

Captain Amrinder Singh is not a man who will operate at the beck and call of the Vadra-Gandhis. He has always been his own person. With the announcement of his new faction, the Congress appears to have spelt its own doom just months ahead of an election year.

Captain allying with BJP exacerbates Congress' existing problems

With the ongoing internal turmoil in the ruling Congress at the hands of PPCC President Navjot Singh Sidhu, the Gandhi-Vadra party may suffer a significant setback in the upcoming polls.

Besides, speaking to Republic, Harcharan Singh Bains who is an advisor to the Akali Dal's Badals opened the doors on the possibility of the SAD potentially joining a BJP-Amarinder super alliance (if the farm issues are resolved), which could see the numbers stacking up against Congress. Notably, he also seconded that the controversial Farm Bills remain the only barrier between the BJP and the SAD to return as allies. 

It is to be seen if the AAP is able to benefit from the Captain-Congress feud and gain centre stage in Punjab. The AAP Punjab spokesperson, speaking to Republic, said that Captain Amarinder Singh would be a liability to the BJP and that their alliance would have no impact, though he was short on reasoning.

The 2022 Punjab Legislative Assembly elections will be held in February or March 2022, to elect the 117 members of the 16th Assembly of the Punjab Legislative Assembly. 

Amarinder Singh quits Congress but 'not politics'

Amarinder Singh has resigned as Chief Minister of Punjab and quit Congress last month after facing humiliation from the Sidhu camp and the Congress High Command which clearly sided with the latter. Speaking to Republic Media Editor-in-Chief Arnab Goswami, Amrinder Singh had made it clear that he is not leaving politics. "I am in talks with my friends and my family, and will soon let you people know about the future," he had said adding that all options were open- be it joining some party or forming one.