Change of guard? 3 reasons why a crisis-hit Jharkhand govt under Hemant Soren could fall

The United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government in Jharkhand has moved most of its MLAs to Chhattisgarh amid the possibility of Chief Minister Hemant Soren being disqualified as a legislator in connection with an office-of-profit case. However, the fact that only 32 MLAs moved to the Mayfair resort in Raipur have raised speculations that the ruling alliance may not survive.

The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha-led Mahagathbandhan government presently has a comfortable majority with JMM, Congress, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) having 30, 18, 1, 1, and 1 seats respectively.

Three reasons why the Jharkhand government is likely to fall

• Hemant Soren faces disqualification

Ructions started in the ruling government in Jharkhand after Bharatiya Janata Party sought Chief Minister Hemant Soren's disqualification in February. The BJP delegation had met Jharkhand Governor Ramesh Bais seeking Soren's removal under Section 9A of the Representation of Public Act.

BJP has accused Soren of misusing his official position as the Mining Minister to get a mining lease in 2021. After this, Governor sought the opinion of the Election Commission (EC) as per Article 192 of the Constitution and the latter sought an explanation from Soren.

During the hearing, Soren's legal team argued that the provisions of the election law do not apply in the case. Sources say that the poll body has recommended Soren's disqualification as a Member of the Legislative Assembly (MLA) and sent its opinion to the Jharkhand Governor on August 25. Governor's final order is awaited.

• Possibility of defection

The possibility of defections from the ruling alliance cannot be ruled out as Governor Ramesh Bais' final order on Hemant Soren's disqualification is awaited.

Sources say that that the poll body has recommended Soren's disqualification as a Member of the Legislative Assembly (MLA) and sent its opinion to the Jharkhand Governor on August 25.

It should also be noted that Congress MLAs in Jharkhand went against the party diktat during the Presidential elections and voted for Droupadi Murmu. Of the 80 votes polled in the 81-member assembly, Murmu got 70 votes while Yashwant Sinha received nine votes.

JMM had formally offered support to the NDA candidate, however, Congress MLAs went against the party's order and voted for Murmu.

• Mystery over missing UPA MLAs

Amid the political crisis in Jharkhand, 32 of the 51 MLAs have been shifted to a resort in Raipur. The mystery over 19 'missing' legislators remains.

If MLAs who are not in Raipur decide to join hands with BJP, which has 26 legislators, and its alliance partner All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) with two legislators, and other two legislators, it could cross the majority mark of 41 required to form a government.