Three days prior to the counting of votes of assembly elections in Gujarat, the Republic PMARQ Exit Poll has predicted that the Bharatiya Janata Party will retain its bastion with a two-third majority.

Overall, there are 182 seats in Gujarat out of which 13 constituencies are reserved for Scheduled Castes and 27 for the Scheduled Tribes. The first phase of Gujarat Assembly polls was held on 1 December on 89 seats spread across 19 districts in Saurashtra-Kutch and southern parts of the state.

The second phase was held on December 5 on the remaining 93 Assembly seats across Ahmedabad, Vadodara, and other central and northern Gujarat regions. In the first phase, the voter turnout was 63.3%, while in the second phase it was 65% (till 5 pm).

Republic PMARQ Exit Poll:

Seat share:

BJP is predicted to win 128-148 seats as against the 99 seats which it won in the 2017 Assembly polls. In this case, BJP might bag the highest number of seats since 2002 which was the first election that the party fought after Narendra Modi took over as the CM.

With a low-key campaign, Congress is predicted to settle for only 30-42 seats. On the other hand, AAP is likely to open its account in the state for the first time ever, with the prediction of it bagging 2-10 seats. Others which might include Independents or candidates of smaller parties like AIMIM are projected to get 0-3 seats. 

Vote share:

While BJP is projected to win 48.2% of the votes, Congress is likely to garner a vote share of 32.6%. With PMARQ giving a vote share of 15.4% to the Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP, there is a possibility of a change in the dynamics of Gujarat politics which has traditionally been a binary contest between Congress and BJP. Meanwhile, Independents and other candidates are predicted to get 3.8% as per this Exit Poll.

Region-wise projections:

The PMARQ Exit Poll figures give a significant edge to BJP across all 4 regions of Gujarat. While the saffron party is likely to continue its dominance in North Gujarat, Central Gujarat, and South Gujarat, it is projected to make huge gains in Saurashtra-Kutch, where Congress won more seats last time owing to the Patidar agitation.

As per the Exit Polls, Congress is poised to replicate its performance in Central Gujarat but incur huge losses in the remaining regions. Meanwhile, AAP is projected to win its maximum seats from Saurashtra-Kutch and South Gujarat.