National Approval Ratings: In Kerala, UPA predicted to make big gains leaving NDA and LDF in a rough patch

With the 2019 Lok Sabha elections looming ever larger, the political scenario in the country is currently in a state of flux, with parties desperately figuring out seat-sharing terms, snubbing or accepting each other with respect to alliances, or fielding their big names in various states. Republic TV and CVoter are back with the National Approval Ratings to give a complete national picture as to who will win if polls are held today. 

With 20 crucial seats in Kerala, here's the projection for seat share and vote share: 

As per the projection, INC+UDF alliance is projected to register major gains, while the BJP is projected to not get any seats. As far as LDF is concerned, it is projected to gain 4 seats.

Seat Share:

• UPA: 16 seats
• NDA: 0 seats
• LDF: 4 seats

In terms of vote share, UPA stands with 40.1%, NDA with 19.7% and LDF with 29.3%. 

Vote Share:

• UPA: 40.1%
• NDA: 19.7%
• LDF: 29.3%
• Others: 10.9%

Considering the fact that Sabarimala has been a core issue in Kerala, where both BJP and Congress have stood with devotees against the Supreme Court's verdict permitting women aged 10-50 to offer prayers at the temple for the first time in centuries, the saffron party is projected to have been unable to make a mark. 

In Novembers edition, the BJP was projected to up its 2014 vote share by 8.1% and take its vote-share to 19%, while the Congress alliance saw a fall in vote share vis-a-vis 2014 and put up 39.9%. Its biggest challenger, the LDF, was slated to more or less maintain its 2014 vote-share with a projection of 29.1%.

Read:  National Approval Ratings: In Kerala UPA Projected To Make Big Gains, Even As LDF And NDA Struggle

 The election year 2019 started off with India’s opposition appearing largely unwilling to acquiesce to Rahul Gandhi's proposal of the Congress serving as a platform for regional parties to come together in order to defeat the BJP. Despite the Congress successes in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, in Uttar Pradesh, the much-heralded Mahagathbandhan turned out to just be a 'Gathbandhan' as old enemies Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati left the Congress out, forming an SP-BSP alliance. Left on its own, the Congress resolved to contest every one of the state's 80 seats and proceeded to formally induct Priyanka Gandhi Vadra into the party, appointing her and Jyotiraditya Scindia as General Secretaries for Uttar Pradesh. Elsewhere, former Gujarat CM Shankarsinh Vaghela is to join the NCP, while the Congress alliance with the TDP in Andhra Pradesh is also in doubt. Meanwhile, the BJP and Shiv Sena may have witnessed a thaw in their relationship with the Maharashtra government sanctioning Rs 100 crore for a Balasaheb Thackeray memorial. 

On issues concerning large numbers of people, the government passed a constitutional amendment giving a green signal to provide 10 percent reservation in jobs and educational institutions to economically weaker sections in the general category, while numerous agrarian schemes that needn't necessarily be farm-loan waivers have also been spoken of in the lead-up to the Modi government's final budget.