National Approval Ratings: In Politically Complex Karnataka, NDA Likely To Win 18 Seats Leaving 7 For UPA & 3 Seats For JDS

Written By Daamini Sharma | Mumbai | Published:

With the Lok Sabha elections 2019 inching closer, Republic TV and CVoter have presented the National Approval Ratings to give complete national picture as to who will win if polls are held in September 2018. In the crucial state of Karnataka which is where the entire grumble and rumble of the Mahagathbandhan began, here's how the numbers look like:

  • The  projections as they stand today are that the BJP will get 18 of the 28 seats in Karnataka, while the Congress with 7 seats gets less than half of the majority. This is a big shift, because it would mean the swing back in the BJPs favour.
  • The JDS doesn’t seem to be moving much despite elbowing its way into power in the Karnataka election at the state level. As per this projection, the 2 seats of 2014 of the JDS has climbed to 3 as of October 2018
  • It is extremely important to as importantly to note that where the Congress has lost 3.8% of the vote in Karnataka, the JDS has gained 2.4% which means that despite being allies at the state level, the JDS and Congress might be feeding and competing into each other’s voteshare. Thereby, making the BJP the biggest beneficiary.  
  • With the BJP projecting an increase in voteshare by 3.4%, the JDS projecting a 2.4% increase and only the Congress seeing a 3.8% fall in voteshare, isn’t it clear that despite, the Mahagathbandhan and HD Kumaraswamy of the JDS at the helm of affairs, isn't it clear that the Congress hasn’t been able to wash away its anti-incumbency from it's previous tenure in the state?
  • If we step back a few paces, the overall picture is one wherein neither the JDS nor the Congress seem to be making significant dents despite their efforts into the BJP tally. In fact, the fact that the BJP has gained a seat in Karnataka from its 2014 tally can only further threaten the numeric strategy behind the JDS+INC combine?  

IMPORTANT TO NOTE: Historically, since 2004,  the BJP has maintained a strong lead in Karnataka in the General Elections, no matter the political dispensation in the state. Given that the BJP is projected to lead in the state with 18 seats in 2019, doesn’t neither Rahul Gandhi’s declaration of interest to be PM in Karnataka this May, nor the symbolic Mahagathbandhan have been able to break the BJPs 14 year streak?

Read: National Approval Ratings LIVE | BJP or Congress: Who will win if elections are held today?

2018 has been a blockbuster year so far as far as the political landscape of India is concerned. While BJP managed to form government in 3 states this year, either in alliance or on its own, gaining a massive lead over the Opposition, the Congress, by forming government in Karnataka by tying up with the JDS, saved itself from being out of power in all large states, save for Punjab. Out of 4 states, which went to polls this year, BJP has its government on its own in Tripura and with alliance partners in two states, namely, Meghalaya (with National People’s Party), Nagaland (with Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party), whereas the Congress managed to form government in Karnataka with JDS as its alliance partner.

The results of 2019 Lok Sabha elections may or may not reflect the results or scenarios of the state assembly elections, nevertheless, to establish where we stand at present, Republic TV and CVoter has presented the National Approval Ratings.