Over the last five year, India's most populous state of Uttar Pradesh has played arguably the biggest role in the BJP's most critical electoral successes. Not only did the party win an astonishing 73 Lok Sabha seats out of 80 in the 2014 general elections, but three years later, in the state elections it repeated the feat by winning 312 seats in the 403-seat Uttar Pradesh assembly. With months to go before the 2019 general elections, the Republic TV-CVoter National Approval Ratings have given a sense of where the key political players in the state would stand if elections were held today, i.e. in November.
Here are the National Approval Ratings for Uttar Pradesh if the elections were held in November 2018:
As is apparent, the projection for the NDA would be a worry for PM Modi, Amit Shah and UP CM Yogi Adityanath, with the ruling coalition dropping from 73 seats in 2014 to just 31 Lok Sabha seats. The Rahul Gandhi-led UPA, which won just 2 seats in 2014, would be in line to increase its seat share to 5, while the traditional Uttar Pradesh regional powers (and former rivals), Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party, are projected to be the biggest gainers, increasing their combined seat share from just 5 in 2014 (of which BSP won none) to 44.
While the seat equilibrium is projected to have shifted in comparison to 2014, in terms of voteshare, things are different. The BJP secured 42.4% voteshare in 2014 and is projected to gain 1.5% to 43.9% in the National Approval Ratings. The UPA's voteshare, on the other hand, drops by 3.1% to 7.9%, while the SP and BSP are projected to accrue a combined voteshare of 44.7%.
Interestingly, since the previous edition of National Approval Ratings, in October, the NDA's seatshare projection has dropped by a very substantive 5 seats from 36. The UPA, on the other hand, is projected to have increased its seatshare from 2 to 5, while the Mahagathbandhan (SP+BSP) are projected to have gained 2 seats from 42 in October.