Delhi Elections: Exit Polls Predict Advantage BJP

The political landscape of Delhi is poised for a significant shift if exit polls for the 2025 Delhi Assembly Elections are to be believed. Most exit polls released on Wednesday evening suggest a decisive victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party ( BJP ) over Arvind Kejriwal 's Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).  

The P-Marq exit poll has forecasted a clear majority for BJP, predicting they will secure between 39 to 49 seats out of the total 70 in the Delhi Assembly. In contrast, AAP is expected to win between 21 to 31 seats, with Congress potentially managing 0 to 1 seat.  

The P-Marq exit poll states that BJP's vote share will be 45 percent and AAP's vote share will be 42 percent. It is important to add the caveat that the exit poll has a margin of error of 3 (+/-) percent. 

Echoing similar sentiments, several other pollsters including Peoples Pulse, JVC Poll, People's Insight, and Chanakya Strategies have predicted a comfortable win for BJP. However, Matrize painted a different picture, predicting a hung assembly where no single party achieves the necessary majority of 36 seats.  

Contrasting these predictions, two agencies, Mind Blink and Wee Preside, have stood out by forecasting a landslide victory for AAP, suggesting a dramatic comeback for Kejriwal's party. 

Here is what you need to know

With the elections having concluded in a single phase on Wednesday, the focus now shifts to the vote counting scheduled for Saturday. If these exit polls hold true, BJP would end a 27-year drought in Delhi, the last time they had a chief minister in the capital was back in 1998. This would mark a significant political turnaround in the nation's capital. 

Exit polls, conducted by gathering voter feedback right after they cast their votes, aim to gauge public sentiment before the official results. However, their reliability has often been questioned, with historical inaccuracies in predictions leading to skepticism among the public and political analysts alike.  

The election was primarily a three-way contest between AAP, BJP, and Congress. For any party or coalition to form the government, securing at least 36 seats is crucial. The final outcome on Saturday will determine whether Delhi sees a new political era under BJP or if AAP retains its stronghold in the national capital.  Political analysts across the spectrum are keenly watching these developments, as the results could influence national political strategies and alliances in the run-up to other state and national elections.