For 3rd COVID wave, IIT researchers have listed 3 possible scenarios: What must India do?

According to a study by Prof. Rajesh Ranjan and Mahendra Verma of IIT Kanpur, the third wave of COVID-19 could peak around September or October this year. The study published on Monday stated that there is significant anxiety among policymakers and the public about the third wave.

“For the same, using SIR model, we have constructed the following three scenarios of a possible third wave using the epidemic parameters of the second wave. We assume that India is fully unlocked on July 15. Scenario 1 (Back-to-Normal): Third-wave peak in October but a lower peak height than the second wave. Scenario 2 (Normal with virus mutations): The peak could be higher than the second one and may appear early (September). Scenario 3 (Stricter interventions): The peak of the third wave could be delayed until late October with strict social distancing. Here, the peak will be lower than the second wave," a press statement said.

Profs. Rajesh Ranjan and Mahendra Verma, along with their team at IIT Kanpur, provide India’s daily COVID-19 figures on Covid19-forecast.org. As per their assessment, the second wave of infections has waned significantly almost in every state except in some Northeast states such as Mizoram, Manipur and Sikkim.

India's daily cases down

The study notes that mostly positivity rate is less than 5% in other states but others like Kerala, Goa, Sikkim and Meghalaya still have a positivity rate of more than 10%.

"India's average daily case count has reduced significantly. As of 19 June, it is 63,000 compared the peak of about 4 lakhs. Most states have a daily Test Positivity Rate (TPR) less than WHO recommended level (5%). However, Kerala, Goa, Sikkim, Meghalaya still have high daily TPR (>10%)," it said.

As per the study, India's daily Case Fatality Rate (CFR) has increased recently to 3.5%, but the cumulative CFR of the second wave is comparable to that of the first wave. "At present, the model does not include vaccination, which should decrease the peak significantly. A revised model with vaccination and with more recent data on the same is being worked out," the study says.

IIT Kanpur is expected to release another study on the third wave by end of this week.