Matter of 4 Days: Pakistani Army Incapable of Surviving Beyond 96 Hours Before Mighty Indian Forces

New Delhi: India is preparing a strong response to avenge the Pahalgam terror attack planned and executed from terror sponsor Pakistan and launched by its backed terrorists who killed 27 Indian civilians mostly tourists.

Ever since the Pahalgam terror attack, tensions have been escalating between the two nations. India has taken a number of non-kinetic actions including suspending the Indus Water Treaty, sending Pakistani nationals back to the country, reducing the diplomatic staff and downgrade the already scale down diplomatic engagements.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi , Home Minister Amit Shah , Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and many other top ministers in the government, spokespersons among others have made it very clear that India will retaliate and retaliate in a way that will teach perpetrators of terror a lesson they can never forget.

As India prepares hard to punish Pahalgam attackers, Pakistan has also threatened that they will retaliate if New Delhi takes any action. But there is a stark difference between the two countries especially if seen through the prism of economic progress, political stability, and most important how well are the countries prepared for a war.

India is at least 5 times the size of Pakistan, is a bustling and word's fastest growing economy. It's currently world's 5th largest and is soon to position itself as 3rd largest economy in the world after America and China.

On the other side, Pakistan is politically not stable, its economy is in doldrums, on the verge of bankruptcy, survives on world bank loans and IMF bailout. So for how long, Pakistan will be able to survive if a full fledged war breaks out. 

How long Pakistan will survive if India-Pakistan war breaks out?

Though Pakistan may be boasting about its army and threatening India that they will retaliate if New Delhi takes any action, the situation on the ground is totally different, something that the Pakistanis know themselves but won’t acknowledge.

Pakistan’s military is facing a critical shortage of arms and ammunition, especially after it had an arms deal with Ukraine to support the country against its war with Russia.

The shortage of ammunition, which will be the number one requirement, if a war breaks out will surely limit Pakistan’s capability of fighting the war.

According to reports, in the best case, Pakistan will be able to survive only for 4-5 days in case a full fledged war breaks out.

The Pakistan Ordnance Factories (POF) due to its outdated production facilities and surges in global demand can only provide ammunition and material for not more than 96 hours or roughly four days in case of a high intensity full fledged war.

What Pakistan is short of ammunition?

Pakistan’s economy has been in the doldrums for the past several years due to political instability, a lack of political will to implement reforms, terror sponsorship and funding, and relentless military spending to combat the Baloch and the Taliban. Desperate to achieve economic rebalance, Islamabad resorted to selling its ammunition to war-torn Ukraine, which is battling Russian forces.

Though Pakistan’s arms deal with Ukraine has secured some foreign currency—certainly worth more than its own devalued currency—it has also severely exhausted its ammunition reserves.

According to a report, cash-strapped Pakistan covertly sold weapons worth $364 million to Ukraine in 2023, including artillery shells, rockets, and small arms ammunition.

Between February and March 2023 alone, Pakistan exported 42,000 122mm BM-21 rockets, 60,000 155mm howitzer shells, and 130,000 122mm rockets, earning $364 million. Allegedly, 80% of these profits were siphoned to the Pakistan Army’s General Headquarters (GHQ) in Rawalpindi. However, there is no certainty that these funds were not used by the army to sponsor terrorism or finance infiltration activities.

During the 2022–23 financial year, Pakistan’s arms exports skyrocketed to $415 million—a staggering 3,000 percent surge from the previous year’s $13 million.

Exporting such a large quantity of ammunition strained Pakistan’s Ordnance Factory, which struggled to meet domestic supply demands, due to outdated production facilities.

Now, with its defense reserves already depleted, Pakistan finds itself in a precarious position against India, as New Delhi plans a strong response in Pahalgam.

Additionally, due to fuel shortages and other logistical challenges, Pakistan has been forced to cut rations, suspend military exercises, and halt war games.