‘Importer To Oil Exporter’: S Gurumurthy Decodes Trump’s Russian Oil Politics With India

New Delhi: S Gurumurthy, a renowned journalist and writer, has blown the lid off Donald Trump's seemingly contradictory stance on India's purchase of Russian oil. Gurumurthy drew a comparison between Donald Trump's decision regarding the Russian oil in his first term as the US President and his decision during his second term. Notably, during his first term as US President, Trump encouraged countries, including India, to opt for Russian oil to keep prices low. However, Trump is now pushing India to move away from Russia and cease imports, a move that has raised eyebrows about his true intentions behind these pressure tactics.

In his post on X, Gurumurthy questioned the logic behind Donald Trump's sudden change in stance, pointing to a major paradigm shift in the US's oil dynamics. He shredded the US President's dual dynamics by shedding light on the truth about his abrupt about-face on India's purchase of Russian oil, revealing a big shift in the US's oil dynamics. 

It is pertinent to mention that the United States has transitioned from being an importer to an oil exporter, and Gurumurthy believes Trump's priority has shifted to promoting US oil exports and driving up global prices. The Thuglak Magazine Editor dismissed the notion that India's oil imports fund the Ukraine war as “fake logic”, instead, he suggested that Trump's real intention is to boost US oil exports and drive up global oil prices. 

S Gurumurthy, in his first post on X, stated, “Trump, in his first Term, encouraged countries to go for Russian oil to keep the oil prices down. He is now forcing India to move away from Russia. Why? US, which was an importer of oil in his (Trump's) 1st term and affected by high prices, is now an exporter of oil wanting higher oil prices.”

“All talks of the Ukraine war and Russia being funded for war by India's oil buy are fake logic. Trump wants US to export oil, wants oil prices to go up. In my speech at Vivekananda International Foundation last year, I referred to this paradigm shift from US as an importer to an exporter of oil.”

S Gurumurthy, editor of Thuglak Magazine, has been a vocal critic of corruption and has exposed several high-profile scandals. His insights into Trump's policies offer a unique perspective on the implications for India and the global economy.

Trump's Dual Dynamics Exposed

Notably, a shift in Donald Trump's stance has huge implications for India's energy security. As a major oil importer, India has been diversifying its sources, including buying discounted oil from Russia. However, Trump is forcing India to opt out of buying Russian oil, a biased strategy that could lead India to rely more heavily on more expensive sources, including the US.

The US-India relationship has been built on strong trade and defence ties. However, Trump's agenda has raised concerns about the future of the US-India ties. 

The experts suggested that as Donald Trump moves ahead with a one-sided agenda on trade, India must navigate a transactional relationship, balancing trade, immigration concerns, and strategic autonomy while maintaining its ties with Russia.

India Is Less Vulnerable Compared To The US

The trade analysts noted that the ripple effects of Trump's tariffs have been felt worldwide, but India is less vulnerable to global trade wars due to its socio-cultural factors. However, the impact of Trump's policies on global trade cannot be underestimated. The US's expansive tariffs have raised concerns about the possible damage to the global economy.

Pertinently, the effect of Trump's obsession with tariff threats across the globe is speculated to hit the US domestic market and trade across the globe hard, with its close allies switching sides to other markets globally. 

The experts have stated that Trump's dual standards on India's Russian oil imports are filtered, and India must prioritise its energy security and strategic autonomy. The implications of Trump's policies on global and India's trade are far-reaching, but they could also lead to new opportunities. 

India's Stance On Russian Oil Imports

The United States, under President Donald Trump's leadership, has been ramping up pressure on countries to reduce their reliance on Russian oil. Trump's latest threat to impose substantial tariffs on Indian goods if it continues to import Russian crude oil has led to concerns regarding energy security, geopolitical alliances, and economic interests.

Meanwhile, India has refused to budge, citing its sovereign right to prioritise its national interests and economic security. A senior Indian government official stated, "We will go solely by the interest of our consumers and opt for the best option price-wise. If Russian crude works out cheaper than what we can get from other sources, why should we penalise our consumers?" The Indian government's stance proved India's pragmatic approach to energy procurement, driven by economic logic rather than geopolitical considerations.

Economic Logic Behind India's Decision

India's decision to continue importing Russian oil is rooted in economic pragmatism. Russian crude oil is available at a steep discount compared to purchases from West Asia or the US, helping India keep domestic pump prices lower. Additionally, Indian refiners export refined fuels like diesel and jet fuel, some of which reach European markets, benefiting Europe's energy needs. The arrangement has been mutually beneficial, with India saving on oil imports and Europe gaining from India's refined fuel exports.

Trump's threat to impose tariffs on Indian goods worth billions of dollars has raised concerns about the impact on trade relations between the two countries. The US is considering imposing a 25% tariff on Indian goods, which could escalate to 100% if India doesn't stop buying Russian oil. The move could strain India's economy and impact its trade balance with the US.

India has pushed back against Trump's threats, asserting its right to make sovereign decisions on energy imports. The country is exploring alternative oil sources, including increased imports from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the US. However, completely shifting away from Russian oil might not be feasible in the short term, given the existing contractual obligations and price dynamics.

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