Karnataka Elections exit poll predicts Congress-BJP neck-and-neck, hung assembly likely

Karnataka Assembly Elections 2023 saw a triangular contest between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Indian National Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular). The voting concluded at 6 pm on Wednesday to elect 224 members of the state legislative assembly, and the votes will be counted and the results will be declared on May 13.

Republic P-MARQ exit poll predicts a tight contest in Karnataka between Congress and BJP with JD(S) likely to be a kingmaker. According to the exit poll, Congress will emerge as the largest party with 94 to 108 seats in the state assembly. The grand old party is followed by BJP which is likely to get 85 to 100 seats, followed by JD(S) with 24-32 seats. Independents and other party candidates are projected to get 2-6 seats.

BJP is projected to get 36 percent vote share, while Congress may get 40 percent, JD(S) 17% percent and others 7% in the May 10 Assembly elections.

A total of 58,282 polling stations were set up across the state. 

During the 2018 Karnataka assembly elections, the BJP emerged as the single largest party in Karnataka with 104 seats. However, JD(S) played the role of the kingmaker and stitched an alliance with Congress, and formed the government, which didn't last for long.

Exit Poll Methodology

The Exit Poll Survey was conducted in all districts across the state of Karnataka. The sample size of the survey was 21,432. The methodology is random stratified sampling using predominantly three techniques Field surveys, CATI, and IDIs with key people in districts and assembly constituencies. We then use a probabilistic model to determine the number of seats a party is going to win from the estimated vote share.

The survey results have been adjusted in proportion to reflect the state and district population across age groups, religion, gender and caste

The questions in the survey were designed to reflect the current scenario electorally and politically and to gauge the critical factors that might play a role in the voting preference of a voter. There is an error margin of 3%.

Karnataka voted for its 224-seat Assembly on Wednesday, May 10. Results of the Karnataka elections are scheduled for May 13.