China, Electric Vehicles, And The End Of The EV Illusion

Across the world, for much of the past decade, electric vehicles were discussed as inevitable destiny rather than as a technological choice.

Adoption curves were projected in straight lines. Policy intent was often mistaken for consumer demand. The idea of transition was treated as imminent and irreversible. What is now becoming visible is the weakening of a particular Western imagination around them.

A Global EV Story That Is Splintering

The global EV story is no longer unified. It is diverging. One trajectory belongs to China. The other characterises much of the rest of the world.

China’s dominance in electric vehicles rests on how electrification was framed from the start. EVs were approached as industrial infrastructure rather than as moral statements or premium lifestyle products. Growth was built on manufacturing scale, cost compression and vertical integration supported by coordinated state action across minerals, batteries, factories logistics and finance.

This framing made EVs ordinary and affordable. Manufacturable at volume was the way to build the market.

Chinese manufacturers led by BYD reflect this approach clearly. These firms function as vertically integrated systems players controlling batteries, power, electronics ,motors ,software and supply chains within a single industrial logic. This depth enables sustained cost discipline and rapid iteration. It explains how Chinese brands have been able to undercut Western incumbents in domestic and overseas markets without relying on perpetual capital burn.

The Western EV Model: Subsidies, Aspiration, And Disruption

In China electric vehicles were always positioned as workhorses with lower cost of operation rather than halo products.

On the other hand, the Western experience followed a different path. In the US and Europe early EV adoption was driven by subsidies, regulatory pressure and a powerful narrative of disruption. 

The Tesla Moment

Tesla played a decisive role in reshaping electric mobility as aspirational and desirable. That cultural shift was significant.

The uncrowning of Tesla by BYD shows us that industrial depth matters. As subsidies taper , regulations soften and consumer realities assert themselves the limits of the Western EV model are becoming clearer. Charging infrastructure remains uneven worldwide. Vehicle prices remain elevated from base ICE models. Concerns around resale value and longevity persist despite acclimatisation. The slowdown in EV demand across the US and Europe reflects a structural gap between how electric mobility was imagined and how mobility is actually lived.

The market response has been revealing. Hybrids and plug-in hybrids are gaining ground. Investment plans are being reworked. Product pipelines are being rationalised. Write-downs are accumulating.

This points to a broader conclusion. Electric vehicles in their current form may not represent a universal end state for mobility across all geographies. They perform well in dense infrastructure environments supported by strong state coordination. China fits this profile. Many other markets do not. Long driving distances, weaker grids policy, supply uncertainty and price sensitivity make full electrification at scale harder to sustain.

What emerges then is a layered future. Hybrids act as transition technologies. Internal combustion engines will continue to improve. Electrification therefore becomes selective rather than total. Mobility evolves through adaptation rather than rupture.

China’s advantage is  institutional and extends beyond technology. The Chinese state treated electric vehicles as a strategic industrial bet comparable to steel, shipbuilding or solar manufacturing in earlier decades.

Western markets largely approached EVs through consumer incentives and moral framing towards climate change. These starting points were bound to produce different outcomes.

Geopolitics of Electric Mobility: What India Must Learn

There is also a geopolitical dimension. Chinese EV manufacturers are expanding into Europe and emerging markets at a time when Western automakers are retrenching and recalibrating towards hybrids. In an era of inflation and consumer caution cost leadership travels well. By making EV ownership routine rather than exceptional, Chinese brands are reshaping global expectations of price , value and performance.

The lesson is quiet but very consequential for us in India. Electrification cannot be mandated into existence through targets alone. Without manufacturing depth ,battery ecosystems, grid readiness and realistic pricing early enthusiasm can dissipate quickly. Even today, our EV penetration in passenger  vehicles is less than 5% of the existing annual market size.

India’s EV debate often mirrors global rhetoric without resolving domestic constraints of cost, infrastructure, and scale.

China’s experience offers a clearer signal. The future of mobility belongs to the builders of the full stack.  If India wishes to shape its mobility future rather than import it, the work lies less in declarations and more in industrial application.

It’s easy to declare a destination but difficult to build the road that gets you there. 

DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the editorial position of the publication.

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