Is A Godzilla El Nino Blowing in the Pacific? Why India Could Feel the Heat?

New Delhi: Climate scientists have warned that the Earth will soon enter an El Nino phase, one of the most powerful one it has faced in decades. Historically, when an El Nino event has been powerful, it has usually earned the epithet “Godzilla El Nino”.

According to projections from the European Centre for Medium‑Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), ocean temperatures across the tropical Pacific could go up significantly over the coming months. Preliminary reports indicate a 22% probability that a “super” El Nino could develop by August 2026. As per forecast models, there is also a 98% likelihood of at least a moderate El Nino event, while the probability of it strengthening into a strong episode is estimated at around 80%.

The phenomenon is part of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a recurring climate pattern linked to changes in sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Although it originates in the Pacific, ENSO has far-reaching consequences, affecting weather systems worldwide. 

How ENSO Affects World Climate

ENSO goes through three distinct phases: El Nino, when Pacific waters become unusually warm; La Nina, the cooler phase; and a neutral phase when conditions sit between the two extremes.

When El Nino takes hold, global average temperatures typically rise. It also brings about changes in weather systems across continents. Regions such as the southern United States and parts of southern Europe often experience above-normal rainfall. In contrast, northern areas of North America turn warmer and drier than usual. 

El Nino conditions also dampens hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean because stronger wind disrupts storm formation; cyclone activity in the central and eastern Pacific often increases.

How Could It Impact India

In India, El Nino events have been associated with rising temperatures and low rainfall during monsoons. During El Nino years, due to altered atmospheric circulation, monsoon winds which bring moisture from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal get weaker. 

A strong El Nino leads to heatwaves across northern and central India and raises concerns about rainfall deficits during monsoon.

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