No Longer a Threat: Asteroid 2024 YR4 Dodges Earth, But Scientists Keep Watch on The Moon

Cape Canaveral: After months of observations, scientists have confirmed that asteroid 2024 YR4 no longer poses a threat to Earth, putting an end to initial concerns about a possible impact in 2032.

First discovered in December 2023, the asteroid briefly topped global risk lists due to its estimated 3% chance of colliding with Earth. However, refined calculations from NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) have drastically lowered the probability to near zero. ESA now estimates the impact risk at just 0.001%, while NASA's latest figures put it at 0.0027%.

This means the asteroid will safely pass Earth in 2032, and there is no foreseeable threat from it for at least the next century.

However, while Earth is out of danger, there remains a 1.7% chance that 2024 YR4 could strike the Moon on December 22, 2032. Scientists will continue monitoring the asteroid closely as it moves away, with NASA’s Webb Space Telescope set to observe it next month to refine estimates of its size.

The asteroid, measuring between 130 feet and 300 feet (40 meters to 90 meters) in diameter, follows a four-year orbit around the Sun. It is expected to vanish from view within the next couple of months.

Despite the initial alarm, NASA emphasized that the 2024 YR4 provided an invaluable opportunity to study near-Earth objects and improve impact prediction models. As tracking technology advances, scientists remain vigilant in monitoring space threats to ensure early detection and preparedness.

For now, the latest findings confirm that Earth is safe from 2024 YR4, allowing astronomers to focus on further refining their asteroid defence strategies.